Global macro traders are closely watching the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for April 28–29. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool as of April 20, the market is pricing in just a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike, while the probability that rates remain unchanged stands at an overwhelming 99.5%. This aligns closely with pricing on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket—on the "How will the Fed’s April rate decision change?" event, Polymarket also shows a 99% probability that rates will stay the same. With both mainstream tools cross-validating each other, the conclusion is clear: the market consensus is that the FOMC will keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in April.
Inflation Data: "Headline Rebound, Core Remains Mild"
The Fed’s confidence in holding rates steady comes from the latest inflation data, which shows a clear divergence. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on April 10, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 3.3% year-over-year, marking the highest level since May 2024. The core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was up 2.6% year-over-year, a modest 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month.
Energy prices were the main driver behind the inflation rebound—gasoline prices surged 21% month-over-month in March, and fuel oil prices soared 31%, together pushing headline CPI up 0.9% month-over-month. However, core inflation remained under control, with core CPI rising just 0.2% month-over-month, below the market expectation of 0.3%. Analysts note that this combination of "headline inflation rebound and mild core inflation" gives the Fed ample reason to remain on hold. The Fed can continue to monitor economic data to see whether the energy shock will spill over into core inflation.
Prediction Markets: The New "Barometer" for Macro Consensus
It’s noteworthy that Polymarket and CME FedWatch are providing highly consistent probability pricing for this event. On Polymarket, the prediction contract for the April FOMC meeting has attracted over $82.7 million in trading volume across three outcome options, with the probability of "no change in rates" locked in at 99.05%.
Prediction markets are moving from the fringes to the mainstream. According to Dune Analytics, monthly users of prediction markets grew 118% year-over-year in March 2026, with nominal trading volume approaching $23.89 billion. Bernstein forecasts that by 2030, annual trading volume in prediction markets will reach around $1 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of about 80%. Even more notable, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, completed a $1.6 billion investment in Polymarket in March, securing exclusive distribution rights for event-driven data—mainstream financial institutions are accelerating the rise of this sector.
Trump Keeps Up Pressure for Rate Cuts
Although the consensus is for rates to remain unchanged in April, political variables continue to influence the Fed’s future policy path. On April 15, President Trump publicly stated he hopes his nominee, Kevin Walsh, will lower rates once appointed as Fed Chair, and threatened to remove Jerome Powell if he stays on after his term ends. Powell’s term as Chair expires on May 15, making this a potential turning point for policy direction.
Fed officials generally believe that, with inflation still above the central bank’s 2% target, cutting rates is unwise. Capital Economics expects the Fed won’t cut rates this year, with the next rate cut likely coming in early 2027. CME data shows the market expects just a 4.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June, versus a 95% probability of rates staying unchanged. The interplay between politics and monetary policy is becoming a key factor shaping the market outlook for the second half of the year.
Macro Implications of Holding Rates Steady
If the Fed keeps rates unchanged on April 29 as expected, it will mark the third consecutive meeting with no change. For investors, steady rates mean a stable liquidity environment and potentially stronger risk appetite. US equity indices, commodities, and other asset classes could benefit during this window, attracting new capital inflows.
Gate, as one of the most comprehensive exchanges for traditional asset classes, covers stocks, commodities, and more, offering users a wide range of investment options amid macro shifts.
Gate Integrates Polymarket: One-Click Access to Global Event Prediction
For users looking to participate directly in the "Fed April Rate Decision" event prediction, Gate offers the most convenient entry point on the market. In March 2026, Gate officially integrated Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, becoming the first centralized exchange (CEX) to offer this platform to its 52 million+ users globally.
Users can access the prediction market directly via the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the "Alpha" section on the homepage. You can participate in event predictions using USDT from your exchange account—no need to manage a Web3 wallet, bridge assets across chains, or pay gas fees. Gate innovatively introduced a dual "Prediction Mode + Trading Mode" architecture—Prediction Mode offers intuitive yes/no probabilities and odds for quick onboarding, ideal for beginners; Trading Mode provides an order book, candlestick charts, and other professional tools for advanced traders. After event settlement, winnings are automatically converted 1:1 to stablecoins and credited to your spot account, delivering a seamless "what you see is what you get" experience.
Summary
In summary, as of April 20, both CME FedWatch and Polymarket show the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in April at over 99%, with strong market consensus. March CPI data reveals a split between "headline inflation rebound and mild core inflation," giving the Fed ample reason to remain cautious. Steady rates help stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, making equities and commodities attractive to investors. Amid ongoing political pressure for rate cuts and Powell’s impending term expiration, policy direction remains uncertain.
As the first CEX to integrate Polymarket, Gate provides users with a direct, convenient way to participate in global event predictions like the "Fed April Rate Decision"—no extra wallet, no gas fees, just USDT for one-click access. Whether you’re a trader seeking to capture macro consensus or an investor exploring the prediction market’s new frontier, Gate offers an open and diversified market experience. Open the Gate App now, enter Polymarket from the "Alpha" section, and use your insights to predict global hot topics.
