As of September 23, the price of Cardano (ADA) has fallen to around $0.82, with a significant daily drop. The breach of the key support area of $0.87 to $0.90 has caused a sudden shift in market sentiment.
Although technical indicators show heavy selling pressure in the short term, Charles Hoskinson about Cardano the release of the "Unlimited Expansion" roadmap, along with the continued adoption by institutions, has added new variables to this long and short game.
01 Price Trend: Key Support Lost, ADA Enters Short-Term Downward Channel
The price of Cardano is at a critical crossroads. According to the latest data from September 23, ADA price has fallen to around 0.82 dollars, experiencing a significant drop.
The main reason for this wave of fall is that ADA has broken below the crucial support area of 0.87 to 0.90 USD.
From the trading data, ADA tested a low of $0.81 after breaking through support, and then saw a slight rebound. Currently, the direct resistance level is around $0.86, while stronger resistance lies at the $0.88 position, which is also where the 100 and 200 exponential moving averages converge.
Volatility data also confirms the uncertainty in the market. The daily Average True Range (ATR) of ADA is $0.05, indicating that price fluctuations are still significant, creating opportunities for short-term traders, but also increasing risk.
Looking at a broader time frame, ADA’s 52-week price range is between $0.54 and $1.14, which means that even though it is currently in a fall trend, the price is still in the upper half of the yearly range.
02 Technical Indicators: Multiple Signals Reveal Market Indecision
- RSI shows signs of being oversold: Cardano’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to around 28, indicating that the market is in an extreme oversold condition. Typically, an RSI below 30 suggests that an asset may be approaching a technical rebound, but it is worth noting that in a strong downtrend, the RSI can remain in the oversold region for a period of time.
- MACD confirms bearish momentum: The MACD indicator has accelerated downward, showing strong bearish momentum. This technical tool indicates that sellers currently dominate the market, and any attempts at a rebound in the short term may face challenges.
- Bollinger Band Analysis: The current %B position of ADA is about 0.15, indicating that the price is close to the lower band. Although this is typically seen as an oversold signal, analysts point out that in a strong downtrend, the price can continue to run along the lower band for a period of time, and one should not solely rely on this indicator to determine the market bottom.
- Market structure contradiction: Although short-term technical indicators are bearish, ADA is still trading above the 200-day simple moving average (0.73 USD), and this long-term trend line remains intact. This creates a contradictory signal in the market: short-term bearish, but the long-term fundamentals have not been compromised.
03 On-chain Data: The Tug-of-War Between Whale Behavior and Institutional Interest
On-chain data reveals the complex dynamics behind ADA price fluctuations. On September 22, there was a net outflow of ADA from exchanges amounting to as much as $26.6 million. This large-scale capital outflow usually indicates that investors are moving tokens to private wallets for long-term storage rather than preparing to sell.
Whale (large holder) behavior presents a duality. On one hand, there was a massive sell-off of 530 million ADA in September, putting downward pressure on prices; on the other hand, data also shows that whales bought over 20 million ADA within 24 hours. This divergence indicates differing views among major players regarding the prospects of ADA.
The derivatives market data has increased the cautious atmosphere. The open interest of ADA futures has decreased by nearly 12%, to $1.57 billion, while the options trading volume has plummeted by over 90%. This sharp decline indicates that traders are reducing leveraged positions, leading to an increase in volatility.
Despite the occurrence of liquidations, the long/short ratio still leans towards the bulls, especially as top traders on Binance hold over three times the long contracts compared to short contracts. This imbalance creates the risk of forced liquidations if prices continue to fall, amplifying short-term volatility.
04 Fundamental Progress: Ecosystem Expansion Supports Long-term Value
Despite the short term Price Trend Weakness, but Cardano’s fundamentals continue to strengthen. Founder Charles Hoskinson recently announced Cardano’s "infinite scalability roadmap," highlighting the Hydra scaling solution, the Midnight privacy protocol, and the integration progress with Bitcoin DeFi.
These technological upgrades are crucial for Cardano’s goal of achieving large-scale applications.
In terms of governance, Cardano has also achieved an important milestone: the first constitution committee fully elected by the community has officially been established. This transition strengthens Cardano’s decentralized characteristics, ensuring that governance actions are subject to constitutional oversight, setting a precedent for transparent and responsible decision-making.
Network activity is also on the rise, with total transaction volume increasing to 113.68 million transactions. Developer activity remains stable, with 320 code commits on GitHub this week. At the same time, the pre-release work for Mithril version 2537 is also underway, indicating the continuous development and upgrading of the ecosystem.
In terms of institutional adoption, ADA has been included in Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund, and has expanded access for institutional and retail clients through partnerships with major European banks such as Open Bank and Santander. This level of recognition at the institutional level adds legitimacy to ADA.
05 Market Prediction: Divergence and Consensus Among Experts on ADA’s Outlook
Short-term outlook (September - October 2025)
In the short term, analysts have differing predictions regarding the price trend of ADA. Analysis from Changelly suggests that in September, the price of ADA may fluctuate between $0.891 and $0.924. The forecast range for October expands to between $0.88 and $1.17.
Some technical analysts point out that if ADA can hold the support at $0.81 and rebound above $0.87, it may trigger a rebound towards $0.90 or even $0.92 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level). Conversely, if it loses the support at $0.81, it may drop to $0.78 and $0.75.
Medium to long-term outlook (end of 2025 and beyond)
By the end of 2025, most forecasts suggest that the trading range of ADA will be between 0.77 and 1.17 dollars, with an average annual price stabilizing around 0.90 dollars. If Grayscale’s Cardano ETF (GADA) is approved, some analysts predict the price could reach between 1.20 and 2.00 dollars.
From a longer-term perspective, some optimistic analysts believe that ADA could soar to between $5 and $8 in the next market cycle. However, reaching the $100 target may have to wait until 2040, as it would require a market capitalization far exceeding Bitcoin’s peak level.
06 Investment Strategy: Operational Ideas for Different Risk Preferences
For investors with different risk preferences, the current ADA price environment offers various opportunities and risk considerations.
Conservative investors may be more suited to take a wait-and-see approach, waiting for clear trend signals. Specifically, they can pay attention to whether ADA can successfully hold the support area between $0.79 and $0.81, or wait for a price breakout above the $0.95 resistance level accompanied by a confirmation signal of increased trading volume. While this strategy may miss the lowest point, the risk is relatively controllable.
Aggressive traders may consider gradually building positions near the current price level, setting stop-loss levels below $0.80. This strategy has a risk-reward ratio of about 1:3, with a target at the resistance level of $1.02. At the same time, they should closely monitor whether the RSI breaks above 60 and if the MACD histogram expands, as these are typically signals of enhanced momentum.
For long-term holders, any price pullback caused by market sentiment may present an opportunity to accumulate ADA. Cardano’s robust development activity (with 21,439 GitHub commits already in 2025) and ongoing institutional adoption provide support for its long-term value.
Future Outlook
Historically, every major technological upgrade of Cardano has preceded a price explosion. With the advancement of the Hydra scaling solution and the development of the Midnight privacy protocol, the fundamentals of ADA are quietly strengthening.
The integration of European banking channels and the institutional custody volume exceeding 1.2 billion USD provide potential support for prices from a funding perspective.
The current fluctuations certainly test investors’ patience, but for those who believe in the long-term value of blockchain technology, Cardano’s roadmap may be more convincing than today’s closing price. The market will always recover, and what truly matters may not be the short-term price movements, but whether the project itself continues to build.
