Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, made it clear on X that the recent $9 billion Bitcoin transaction was not driven by concerns over quantum computing threats to Bitcoin. During recent market turbulence, Bitcoin briefly fell below $71,000. According to Gate market data, it is currently trading at $70,433.4.
Clarifying the Event and Addressing Market Misconceptions
On February 3, 2026, Galaxy Digital officially denied a circulating rumor that a client sold $9 billion worth of Bitcoin due to fears over quantum computing threats.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research, stated unequivocally on social media that quantum computing was not the motivation behind this transaction. This denial directly addressed market speculation that intensified following the company’s earnings call. Some members of the crypto community had speculated that a high-net-worth client sold off their holdings because they were "extremely concerned about Bitcoin’s quantum resistance." These comments fueled further unease in an already volatile market.
CEO Mike Novogratz described the quantum computing threat as a "big excuse," implying that investors used it to justify their selling, especially as the Bitcoin price showed signs of weakness.
The Real State of Quantum Threats
Potential breakthroughs in quantum computing have long been a concern for cryptographers and have recently begun to influence asset management practices. These worries are not entirely unfounded.
Industry analysis indicates that Shor’s algorithm could, in theory, break the signatures protecting Bitcoin private keys, while Grover’s algorithm could outpace the network’s computational defenses. However, current quantum computers have not yet reached 1,000 qubits, and it’s estimated that several million qubits would be required to threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography.
Adam Back, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Blockstream, has pointed out that quantum computing is likely at least 20 to 40 years away from posing a real threat to Bitcoin. The Ethereum Foundation has already made post-quantum security a strategic priority and established a dedicated post-quantum team. For Bitcoin, improvement proposals like BIP-360 are under discussion to introduce quantum-resistant signature options for addresses that could be affected by quantum advances.
The Real Reason Behind the Massive Sell-Off
According to Galaxy Digital, this "Satoshi-era" client sold 80,000 BTC as part of estate planning, with these coins having remained dormant since 2011. The sheer scale of this transaction makes it one of the largest nominal trades in industry history.
Analysts note that unwinding such a large position requires a lengthy process, which put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the second half of 2025. While this was not a recent trade (it was reported last year), it has become a symbolic event, sparking discussions among early Bitcoin holders about waning conviction. Novogratz suggested that the decision to sell is part of a broader trend of early Bitcoin adopters taking profits. Although the community has long advocated "HODLing" through volatility, that conviction now appears to be weakening.
Galaxy Digital reported a net loss of $482 million in Q4 2025, with a total loss of $241 million for the year. The company cited a challenging market environment and the complexities of facilitating such a large transaction as the main reasons for these losses.
Market Impact and Bitcoin Price Trends
This sell-off occurred amid significant volatility in the crypto market. In October 2025, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by 30%, triggering $19 billion in liquidations. As of now, Gate data shows Bitcoin trading at $70,433.4, with a market capitalization of $1.56 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $1.65 billion.
Market forecasts suggest that Bitcoin’s average price in 2026 could reach $78,559.7, fluctuating between a low of $58,134.17 and a high of $85,630.07. By 2031, Bitcoin could potentially reach $210,873.2, representing a +108% return from current levels. In an interview with Bloomberg, Novogratz said the price decline may be nearing a bottom. He added that ongoing progress on the US market structure bill, CLARITY, could help drive a recovery in the crypto market.
Industry Outlook and Investment Trends
Institutional analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s trajectory for 2026. Standard Chartered has revised its year-end 2026 target for Bitcoin down from $300,000 to $150,000. Bernstein, in its latest report, stated that the crypto market remains in a short-term bear cycle but is expected to reverse within 2026, with Bitcoin potentially bottoming out in the $60,000 range.
Market expert Andre Dragosch highlighted shifting macroeconomic factors. The simultaneous rise in precious and industrial metals is signaling reflation, echoing an uptick in the ISM Manufacturing Index. Dragosch emphasized that historically, such a macro environment has supported Bitcoin bull markets. He noted that Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity is returning, long-term holder selling pressure is easing, and institutions are absorbing multiple times the new supply through ETPs, ETFs, and corporate treasuries.
On the investment trend front, Galaxy’s Novogratz pointed out that leverage in the system has been significantly reduced. This suggests that the early "HODL mania" may be giving way to a more mature, institutionally driven allocation phase. Despite the eye-catching $9 billion sell-off, Novogratz stressed that leverage in the system has dropped considerably. This structural shift could mean future volatility will look different, with the market becoming more resilient.
The debate over quantum computing risks has not halted Bitcoin’s march toward broader institutional adoption. Bitcoin’s circulating market cap on Gate now stands at $1.56 trillion, accounting for 56.80% of the entire market. Meanwhile, out of more than 21 million Bitcoin addresses on the network, about one-third are exposed to quantum computing threats due to their public keys being visible on the blockchain. However, modern Bitcoin addresses hash their public keys, exposing them only when funds are spent. With proposals like BIP-360 advancing and institutional interest in Bitcoin growing, the ecosystem is preparing for any future challenges—including those that may come from quantum computing.
