February 12, 2026 — The "nonfarm payroll bombshell" dropped last night by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has shattered any remaining hope that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near term.
Data released on February 11, 2026 (EST) shows that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding economists’ expectations of 55,000 to 70,000, and nearly triple December’s figure of 48,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, and hourly wage growth also outpaced forecasts.
This "across-the-board" strong labor market report dealt a heavy blow to traders betting on an "early Fed pivot." As a leading global digital asset trading platform, Gate observed a sharp reversal in market sentiment within minutes of the data release. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a March rate cut plunged from 20% to 6%, and bets on three rate cuts this year were slashed in half. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, Bitcoin and Ethereum posted two massive four-hour red candles, pricing in the collapse of "rate cut faith."
Employment Market Defies Expectations, White House and Wall Street at Odds
What makes this nonfarm payroll report unique isn’t just the numbers, but the broader macro backdrop.
Before the data was released, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett warned that "U.S. job growth will slow," and some institutions even predicted January’s numbers could turn negative due to California wildfires and extreme cold. The actual outcome, however, caught all the "doves" off guard: nearly all of the 130,000 new jobs came from healthcare and social assistance, with construction adding another 33,000 positions.
In a dramatic twist, President Trump immediately posted on Truth Social, proclaiming that "America deserves the world’s lowest interest rates." Yet his confidant Hassett’s dovish stance that "the Fed still has ample room to cut rates" rang hollow in the face of scorching employment data. On Polymarket, traders voted with their wallets—raising the odds of no rate cut in June from 31% to 37%.
This rift between White House political goals and market realities is set to become the biggest macro uncertainty for the crypto market for the rest of 2026.
Crypto Market Reacts: Gold and Bitcoin Diverge Sharply
After the nonfarm data release, risk assets expressed their disappointment with a "free fall."
According to Gate’s market terminal data as of February 12:
- Bitcoin (BTC): Trading at $67,495. After attempting to break the $69,000 resistance yesterday, BTC plunged over $3,000 within an hour of the data release, bottoming near $65,800. It’s now consolidating narrowly around $67,500, still pressured below the daily MA30.
- Ethereum (ETH): Trading at $1,990. ETH underperformed BTC, briefly dipping below the $1,900 mark after the data, losing its grip on the key $2,000 psychological level.
- Solana (SOL): Trading at $81, down 3.4% in 24 hours, with leading altcoins following suit.
The sharp one-way moves triggered massive liquidations. According to Coinglass, 147,000 traders were liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations exceeding $470 million—most of it from overly bullish long positions.
A noteworthy signal: gold didn’t fall on delayed rate cut expectations—instead, it rose 1.3% to around $5,100. This "Bitcoin falls with U.S. equities while gold rallies alone" pattern suggests the crypto market’s driving logic has shifted from "digital gold as an inflation hedge" to "global liquidity arbitrage tool." Until the Fed resumes monetary easing, it will be difficult for BTC to stage an independent bull run.
Bright Spots Amid a Zero-Sum Game: Defensive Strategies as Safe Havens
The more extreme the macro environment, the more it tests the comprehensive strength of trading platforms.
Amid widespread market turmoil, Gate once again demonstrated a strong "safe haven magnet effect." According to the latest DefiLlama data, Gate saw net inflows of over $17.81 million in the past 24 hours. This shows that when professional investors see little chance of a short-term macro shift, they prefer to park assets on top-tier platforms with robust risk controls and a deep product lineup.
This trend is closely tied to Gate’s recent fundamental improvements. The January transparency report showed Gate’s derivatives market share climbed to 11%, with perpetual contract trading volume holding at $1.93 trillion in Q4 last year. Meanwhile, since its launch, Gate’s TradFi business has surpassed $20 billion in cumulative trading volume, covering metals, forex, equity indices, and more. As speculative one-way trades fade, multi-asset allocation becomes the platform’s core moat.
Market Outlook: June Rate Cut Still the Baseline, Bitcoin Must Hold $65,000
Strong as the nonfarm data is, it’s not the end of the story.
We need to acknowledge a contradiction masked by these "blowout numbers": the Bureau of Labor Statistics sharply revised down total nonfarm payroll growth for 2025 to 181,000 (from an initial 584,000), meaning last year’s robust job market was essentially a "false prosperity." As the lagged effects of high interest rates kick in, the job market could still see a steep slowdown in the second half of the year.
Gate’s analyst team believes the market is now in the first stage of "expectation reset":
- Short term (March–April): Rate cut expectations are at rock bottom, with BTC likely to trade in a $65,000–$70,000 core range. If the price decisively breaks below $65,000 (which some users’ technical analysis sees as the last line of defense for bulls), a retest of the $60,000 support is possible.
- Midterm (June–July): As core PCE and Q1 GDP slow, the market will reprice a June rate cut. Currently, CME data shows the probability of a June cut remains around 60%, keeping hopes for a mid-year rebound alive.
For traders, the current strategy should be "antifragile." As several veteran traders on Gate Square have pointed out, until the daily MACD forms a bullish crossover, it’s more practical to keep leverage under 3x and focus on defending Bitcoin at $65,000 and Ethereum at $1,900, rather than trying to call the bottom.
After the nonfarm report, the world hasn’t changed—it’s just that the tide is receding faster than expected. Until the Fed truly pivots, preserving capital is the best gift Gate can offer rational investors.
