February 13, 2026 — After a sharp correction at the start of the year, the cryptocurrency market is beginning to show early signs of a rebound. However, the starting point of this recovery looks very different for participants in various spot ETFs. According to the latest report from Bloomberg analysts and on-chain data, Ethereum ETF holders are facing significantly greater unrealized losses compared to Bitcoin ETF holders. Drawing on the latest market data from Gate as of February 13, 2026, this article takes a deep dive into the fundamental differences between the two major crypto ETF holder groups, focusing on cost basis, drawdown magnitude, and market structure.
A Stark Contrast
As of February 13, 2026, Gate market data shows:
- Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $66,580.7, with a 24-hour trading volume of $768.22M, a market cap of $1.31T, and a market dominance of 55.42%.
- Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $1,947.19, with a 24-hour trading volume of $205.33M, a market cap of $233.26B, and a market dominance of 9.80%.
In terms of price performance, BTC and ETH have rebounded +4.97% and +5.92% respectively over the past 7 days, appearing to move in tandem. But when you look at the cost structure for ETF holders, a very different story emerges.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart points out that the average cost basis for US spot Ethereum ETF investors is around $3,500, while the current ETH price has dropped more than 50% below that level. In contrast, the average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is about $84,063, with the current BTC price at $66,580.7, representing a drawdown of roughly 20.8%.
In other words, the depth of unrealized losses for Ethereum ETF holders is 2.5 times that of Bitcoin ETF holders. This isn’t just a numerical difference—it means ETH would need to rally 80% just to return to the average ETF cost basis, while BTC only needs a 26% increase.
The True Scale of Bagholding: AUM Perspective
Shrinking ETF assets under management (AUM) offer a direct measure of investor pain. According to SoSoValue data, total net assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from a peak of $170 billion in October 2025 to about $85.76 billion now—a drawdown of approximately 49.5%. Surprisingly, despite this halving of AUM, only about 6% of Bitcoin ETF assets have actually exited during this downturn. This suggests most BTC ETF holders are choosing to ride out the storm, rather than panic selling en masse.
In contrast, Ethereum ETF AUM has plunged from a peak of $30.5 billion to $11.27 billion—a staggering 63% drop. Even more concerning, net inflows into Ethereum ETFs have only decreased by about $3 billion. On the surface, this looks like holders are reluctant to sell, but a deeper interpretation is that ETH ETF liquidity is thin and there’s a lack of new capital to absorb selling pressure.
Currently, the crypto market is in a zero-sum phase, with capital flowing primarily into Bitcoin, which has stronger consensus and a clearer narrative. Ethereum faces structural headwinds, including value leakage to Layer 2 solutions and a weakening upgrade narrative.
Why Is It Harder for ETH ETF Holders to Break Even?
Elevated Cost Basis, Steep Recovery Threshold
As mentioned, most Ethereum ETF positions were established between late 2024 and early 2025, when ETH traded in the $3,200–$3,800 range. With Gate’s current ETH quote at $1,947.19, ETH would need to rise 79.7% just to break even.
Gate’s Ethereum price prediction estimates an average ETH price of $1,936.98 for 2026, with a projected high of $2,324.37. Even in the most optimistic scenario, there’s still a gap of over $1,175 to the $3,500 breakeven point. This means most Ethereum ETF holders are unlikely to reach profitability in 2026.
Bearish Capital Flows
Ecoinometrics data shows that both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have experienced negative 30-day rolling net flows for 90 consecutive days. The difference is that BTC ETF outflows are a mix of profit-taking and panic selling, while ETH ETF outflows are more driven by capitulation and stop-losses.
Ethereum ETFs are facing a double bind: they can’t attract risk-off capital like Bitcoin ETFs, nor can they replicate the on-chain application boom narrative of 2023–2024. Without growth in new users or protocol revenue, ETH’s "ultrasound money" narrative is under scrutiny.
Supply Structure: Infinite vs. Scarce
Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million, with 19.98 million currently in circulation, reinforcing its deflationary and digital gold narrative. By contrast, while Ethereum briefly became deflationary, network activity has cooled, pushing total ETH supply back up to 120.69 million with no cap.
The deeper reason Ethereum ETFs struggle to attract long-term capital is that the "digital oil" narrative has lost appeal in a tightening macro environment, and the lack of a supply cap makes it hard for ETF holders to develop the same scarcity conviction as with Bitcoin.
The Market Has Bottomed, but the Rebound Is Uneven
While most believe the crypto market has found a short-term bottom—and Gate data shows both BTC and ETH have rebounded over 5% from early February lows—the current rally is still overwhelmingly led by Bitcoin.
A key metric: Bitcoin’s market dominance now stands at 55.42%, up nearly 10 percentage points from the same period in 2025. This indicates that even as the market recovers, capital is flowing back into Bitcoin first, not Ethereum or other competing chains.
For Ethereum ETF holders, this is a sobering reality: when the market rises, ETH lags BTC; when the market falls, ETH drops more than BTC. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas notes that even after BlackRock’s IBIT ETF AUM was halved from a $100 billion peak to $51 billion, it remains one of the fastest ETFs in history to surpass $60 billion in assets. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs have yet to demonstrate comparable resilience.
Conclusion: ETF Is Not the Endgame—Narrative Is
As of February 13, 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum are priced at $66,580.7 and $1,947.19, respectively. Bitcoin ETF holders are waiting for a liquidity inflection point and a shift in macro interest rates, while Ethereum ETF holders need more patience—not just waiting for a market rebound, but for the Ethereum ecosystem to prove its value capture capabilities once again.
At Gate, we continue to provide users with real-time, transparent market data and in-depth analysis. Whether in bull or bear markets, understanding the true cost structure of your assets and the direction of capital flows is key to navigating every cycle.
