Recent prediction market data shows that Bitcoin’s chances of returning to $75,000 in February have dropped below 50%. This marks a sharp contrast with early February, when Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 and the probability on Polymarket surged to 64%.
As of February 11, according to the latest market data from Gate, BTC was priced at $66,900, down 3% over the past 24 hours. Current market pricing puts the probability at just 47%. This turning point reflects a complex backdrop of a strengthening US dollar, institutional outflows, and traditional bear market signals.
With the widely anticipated "February rebound" facing resistance, investors are re-evaluating Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
Shift in Predictions
Market sentiment indicators are sending mixed signals. On February 8, as the Bitcoin price climbed above $70,000, prediction markets were optimistic, giving a 64% probability of further gains.
However, this optimism was short-lived. The latest market pricing has cut that probability to 47%, breaking a key psychological threshold—market confidence in a short-term rally has fallen below half.
Meanwhile, long-term expectations are even more bearish. Prediction data shows a 72% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $55,000 by the end of 2026.
This divergence between short- and long-term outlooks highlights investors’ internal conflict: hoping for a technical rebound, yet remaining cautious about the broader trend.
Macro Pressures
Bitcoin is currently facing one of the most complex macro environments in recent years. The US Dollar Index has rebounded strongly, directly weighing on dollar-denominated assets.
The US Dollar Index rose 1.5% in just two days, reaching 97.60—its best two-day gain in nine months. This strength raises the opportunity cost of holding non-dollar assets like Bitcoin.
At the same time, several analysts have begun using the term "bear market." Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, believes Bitcoin may be in a bear market that could last until the third quarter of 2026.
Recent surveys by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode show that 26% of institutions now describe the market as being in a bear phase, up sharply from just 2% in previous surveys.
A bear market is traditionally defined as a drop of more than 20% from recent highs. Since peaking above $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has fallen about 41%—well past that threshold.
Market Structure
Structural issues in the current Bitcoin market are hard to ignore. Since October, large holders have sold around $29 billion worth of Bitcoin. Outflows of this magnitude have created persistent selling pressure.
Digital asset exchange-traded products (ETPs) have seen net outflows of about $440 million year-to-date. The retreat of institutional funds has further weakened market support on the buy side.
On-chain data is also discouraging. CryptoQuant’s "Bull Market Score Index" currently stands at just 20 out of 100, described as being in an "extreme bear zone."
Options market pricing also shows a clear defensive stance, with traders more willing to pay premiums for downside protection than to bet on upside moves.
Technical Analysis
From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. The price has rebounded from last Friday’s yearly low of $59,800 to the current $66,900 level.
Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from a low of 17 to 35 and continues to trend upward. The two lines of the stochastic oscillator are also climbing, approaching the neutral 50 mark.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed a small bullish flag pattern, which is generally seen as a bullish continuation signal in technical analysis. This suggests the possibility of testing the $75,000 resistance in the short term.
However, the market still faces significant challenges. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in "extreme fear" territory at a level of 9. Both Bitcoin’s trading volume and futures open interest remain low.
Market Signals
Market bottoms are often accompanied by extreme sentiment. Recently, harsh criticism of Bitcoin from traditional financial media such as the Financial Times may serve as a contrarian indicator.
Jemima Kelly of the Financial Times bluntly stated that "Bitcoin is still about $69,000 overvalued." Such "victory declarations" from long-term bears often appear near market turning points.
Gold bull and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has also joined the chorus, pointing out that "in gold terms, Bitcoin is in a long-term bear market."
Meanwhile, Tether’s capital raising efforts appear to be facing headwinds. Reports indicate that investors are resisting a $500 billion valuation, with the fundraising size likely to be only around $5 billion—well below the originally envisioned $15–20 billion.
Cycle Shift
A fundamental change in the Bitcoin market is that the traditional "four-year cycle" logic may no longer hold. Several institutions—including VanEck, K33 Research, and 21Shares—have recently reported that the famous four-year cycle may be over.
Instead, market rhythm is now driven by liquidity and capital flows. This means Bitcoin’s price will be more directly affected by global liquidity shifts, real yields, institutional inflows, and stablecoin liquidity.
As for when the current bear market will end, analysts point to three key signals: trend recovery, a demand inflection point, and normalization of risk appetite.
Trend recovery requires Bitcoin to regain and hold above its long-term moving averages (such as the 200-day or 365-day lines) for several weeks. A demand inflection point means ETF and ETP flows shift from flat or negative to sustained inflows. Normalization of risk appetite requires the options market to return to balance, with reduced demand for downside protection.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin hovers near $67,000, market predictions have become sharply divided. Short-term traders are betting on a technical rebound, with probability data showing a 71% chance of a move back up to $85,000.
Long-term capital, on the other hand, is quietly positioning for a more conservative outcome, with a 72% probability pointing to a year-end target of $55,000. This divergence reflects the growing pains of a maturing crypto market, where traditional cycle theories are being replaced by new logic centered on institutional capital flows.
Market bottoms are often born amid a flood of bearish commentary—just as voices claiming "Bitcoin is still about $69,000 overvalued" begin to dominate the headlines.
