June 12, 2026—on a Friday, Eastern Time—the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO will officially debut on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol SPCX. The offering is priced at $135 per share, with approximately 555.6 million Class A common shares to be issued, targeting a base fundraising total of $75 billion. This marks the largest IPO in global capital market history, surpassing the $29.9 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan are acting as joint lead underwriters, joined by 18 additional banks for distribution—an underwriting lineup that includes nearly every major Wall Street investment bank.
However, the $1.77 trillion valuation—translating to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 90 to 100 times—has sparked intense debate from the outset. For a company with a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and a further net loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026, what exactly anchors this valuation? In this analysis, we break down SpaceX’s financial foundation across four key dimensions: Starlink user growth, revenue structure, the xAI merger, and Colossus compute leasing. We also assess the practical value of Gate’s US stock and direct IPO access products from an investment entry perspective.
From 9.2 Million to 12 Million: Starlink’s Exponential Growth Engine
Starlink’s user growth curve is the most verifiable element underpinning SpaceX’s valuation. In 2025, Starlink leaped from 4 million to over 9 million users, adding a record 4.6 million net new users in a single year. Growth momentum continued into 2026: as of March 31, 2026, Starlink had about 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries and regions, representing a 105% year-over-year increase. On June 5, 2026, SpaceX announced that global active users had surpassed 12 million, spanning more than 160 countries and regions, with over 11,000 satellites in orbit. The jump from 9.2 million to 12 million users took less than six months, and the compound growth rate continues to accelerate.
Revenue figures mirror this trajectory. According to Payload Space, Starlink generated between $10.4 billion and $11.39 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for 61% to 69% of SpaceX’s total revenue ($15 billion to $18.67 billion). More crucially, profitability is robust: Starlink posted $4.423 billion in operating profit for 2025, with an operating margin of approximately 39%. In Q1 2026, operating profit further increased to about $1.14 billion, with margins holding steady at around 38%—exceptionally high for the satellite broadband industry.
Industry forecasts project Starlink’s 2026 revenue will grow by 80% to $18.7 billion, making up 79% of SpaceX’s total revenue. Based on institutional projections of $34 billion in total 2026 revenue, Starlink’s share will approach the $20 billion mark. This long-term growth outlook forms the only core asset within SpaceX’s valuation framework that can be anchored by traditional "profit-cash flow" models.
Three Time Horizons in Revenue Structure: Launch, Connectivity, and AI
In its latest prospectus, SpaceX divides its business into three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI—corresponding to "present" (rocket launch services), "near-term" (Starlink satellite internet), and "future" (AI compute and models).
Commercial Launches (Space Segment) are SpaceX’s earliest core competency. Thanks to full rocket reusability with Falcon 9, SpaceX has reduced per-launch costs to $15–30 million—just a tenth or less of traditional expendable rockets. In 2025, SpaceX completed 137 launches, representing about 70% of global commercial launches, and holds a near-monopoly in commercial launch markets across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. On the government side, SpaceX secured two major US Space Force contracts just before the IPO: a $4.16 billion Space-Based Advanced Moving Target Indicator (SB-AMTI) contract for deploying satellite constellations to track aerial threats, and a $2.29 billion Space Data Network Backbone contract to build secure, high-speed military satellite communications. Combined, these contracts total $6.45 billion.
Starlink (Connectivity Segment) is now SpaceX’s financial backbone and the only segment currently delivering stable operating profits. In 2025, Starlink generated $4.423 billion in operating profit with a 39% margin; Q1 2026 saw about $1.14 billion in operating profit at a 38% margin. Based on 2026 revenue estimates, Starlink’s standalone operating profit could exceed $5 billion.
The AI Segment presents a very different financial profile. In February 2026, SpaceX officially acquired Elon Musk’s AI company xAI through a share swap, with the combined entity valued at about $1.25 trillion. Financially, the AI segment is characterized by massive capital expenditures and a lack of breakeven: in Q1 2026, SpaceX’s consolidated capex reached $10.107 billion, with $7.723 billion attributed to the AI segment. Meanwhile, cash and equivalents fell from $15.852 billion to $11.385 billion, with SpaceX burning through roughly $3 billion in cash reserves per quarter.
Looking at the combined financials, SpaceX is experiencing rapid revenue growth alongside soaring capital expenditures. Consolidated operating revenue rose from $10.387 billion in 2023 to $14.015 billion in 2024 and $18.674 billion in 2025—a 33.2% year-over-year increase in 2025. Q1 2026 revenue was about $4.69 billion, maintaining growth momentum. However, net losses were $4.937 billion in 2025, with an operating loss of $2.59 billion. In Q1 2026, consolidated net loss surged to $4.28 billion—nearly matching the full-year 2025 loss. This combination of rapid revenue growth and widening losses is SpaceX’s central financial paradox.
Colossus Compute Leasing to Anthropic: The Key to AI Monetization
In May 2026, SpaceX struck a headline-grabbing compute leasing deal with Anthropic. Anthropic will lease compute resources from SpaceX’s Colossus and Colossus II data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, at a rate of $1.25 billion per month, under an agreement originally set to run through May 2029, with a total contract value of about $40 billion.
Colossus 1 is a massive facility, housing more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs—including H100, H200, and next-generation GB200 accelerators—delivering 300 megawatts of compute power. This supports large language models, multimodal systems, and frontier-scale generative AI. The deal is strategically significant for both parties: Anthropic gains access to cutting-edge AI training infrastructure, while SpaceX’s AI segment, still pre-operating profit, secures a stable, large-scale cash inflow via compute leasing.
According to the prospectus, the annualized run-rate for AI compute leasing revenue now exceeds $15 billion. Factoring in Anthropic’s payments and other partnerships like Google Cloud, SpaceX’s annualized recurring revenue (ARR) from AI compute leasing has reached about $26 billion. This means that even before xAI’s large models are commercialized, the underlying compute infrastructure is already generating independent revenue—a unique asset monetization path in both the AI and broader tech sectors.
At the end of May 2026, Elon Musk publicly clarified the agreement’s terms, stating the lease period is only 180 days, not a long-term commitment, and reserving the right to reclaim compute resources if needed. Regardless of the final terms, converting 220,000 GPUs into annualized, multi-billion-dollar leasing revenue has become a key pillar supporting the valuation of SpaceX’s AI segment.
Why Is the $1.77 Trillion Valuation Still Controversial?
No matter how impressive Starlink’s growth or how compelling the AI compute monetization story, SpaceX’s valuation remains highly contentious.
Concern 1: Justifying a P/S Ratio Over 50
Based on projected 2026 revenue of $34 billion, SpaceX’s IPO implies a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 52. Using 2025’s actual revenue of $18.674 billion, the P/S ratio jumps to 90–100. Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens estimates SpaceX’s fair value at around $780 billion—about 55% below the IPO price—and warns that the company "is overvalued in almost any scenario, at least in the short term."
Concern 2: Sustainability of Capital Expenditures and Ongoing Funding Needs
As of the IPO, SpaceX’s accumulated deficit stands at about $41.3 billion. The prospectus admits the company "has a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future," and expects significant capital outlays to continue until AI products turn profitable. At the current cash burn rate of $3 billion per quarter, the $75 billion raised in the IPO would cover only about six to seven quarters of capital spending.
Bullish View: Unique Asset Profile and Ecosystem Integration Premium
SpaceX’s closest comparables aren’t traditional aerospace stocks, but tech platform companies with AI infrastructure attributes. Oppenheimer rated the stock "Outperform" post-IPO, setting a 12–18 month price target of $190—a roughly 40% premium over the $135 offering price. New Street Research set a $165 target, valuing the xAI segment at $575 billion. xAI brings the Grok large language model, massive real-time training data (from the X platform), and the potential for deep integration with SpaceX’s launch and Starlink networks. This "Space + AI" vertical integration model is unprecedented in global capital markets.
How to Invest in SPCX via Gate?
With the SpaceX IPO underway, the key question for retail investors is: how can you buy SPCX shares?
In June 2026, Gate launched a new "IPO Access" service, with SpaceX as its inaugural project. Users can submit subscription requests before the company officially lists, and quickly receive spot shares after listing—creating a seamless, closed-loop experience from IPO subscription to secondary market trading. By participating in the "Gate IPOs" section, users can subscribe using USDT, with allocations weighted in favor of earlier subscribers. Upon successful IPO allocation, shares are distributed directly to users’ Gate stock accounts on June 12, enabling real US stock ownership and trading without the need for an additional brokerage account.
Additionally, on June 1, 2026, Gate officially launched its real stock trading service, becoming one of the first crypto platforms to offer direct access to the US stock market. As of June 2026, Gate TradFi lists over 10,000 real stocks and ETFs, covering the NYSE, Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, NYSE American, and BATS—five major US exchanges.
Gate’s real stock trading offers three core advantages: an ultra-low minimum for fractional shares (as little as 0.01 shares, or $1 to start investing), direct USDT settlement, and full SIPC protection. All trades are executed by Alpaca, a licensed US broker-dealer and clearing firm, with assets independently custodied through the DTC system.
For investors looking to get early exposure to SPCX or other hot US stocks, Gate’s stock trading ecosystem provides a one-stop solution with low barriers, high efficiency, and robust asset security.
Conclusion
SpaceX’s IPO sets a new precedent in capital markets—with $75 billion raised, a 52–100x P/S ratio, and the unprecedented "Space + AI" business model driving the IPO premium. On the financial front, Starlink’s 12 million global active users and 39% operating margin provide a solid cash flow foundation; the launch business maintains its lead with $6.45 billion in government contracts and 137 launches annually; and xAI, through Colossus compute leasing (annualized at over $15 billion) and potential monetization of its large model ecosystem, underpins the AI segment’s lofty valuation.
Yet, cumulative losses of $41.3 billion, a $3 billion quarterly cash burn, and geopolitical risks tied to international revenue remain long-term factors that investors cannot ignore when considering SPCX. The projected opening price range ($165–$190) compared to the $135 offering price has created a significant expectation gap, and the market will ultimately set its own price on day one.
For those eyeing the SpaceX IPO, the long-term value of SPCX hinges on three core variables: whether Starlink can surpass 20 million users and maintain margins by 2027; whether xAI (and AI business via compute leasing such as Colossus) can achieve breakeven within 3–5 years; and whether SpaceX can sustain its dominance in launch frequency, reusability efficiency, and government contract renewals. The answers to these questions will unfold over the coming year.
