In 2026, the global energy market is being driven by one central question: When will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal operations?
This vital maritime corridor, which handles roughly 34% of the world’s crude oil trade, has been effectively blocked since the outbreak of US-Israel-Iran military conflict at the end of February 2026. Nearly four months later, the timeline for reopening the strait has become the focal point for energy traders, shipping giants, and macroeconomic policymakers worldwide. According to data from Gate’s prediction market, as of June 9, the probability of the strait reopening by the end of June stands at just 10%. The odds rise to 28% for a return to normal by July 31, and jump to 75% by December 31. The sharp increase in the 90-day probability is itself the most important pricing signal for global markets regarding the strait’s situation.
From 10% to 75%: How Prediction Markets Price the "Strait Gamble"
Gate’s prediction market operates on a "price equals probability" mechanism, allowing participants to vote directly with USDT. When users buy shares in a particular event outcome, the transaction price instantly reflects the collective market judgment of that outcome’s probability. Four months ago, Iran announced it would suspend indirect talks with the US and, through intermediaries, signaled a "complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz." Brent crude surged nearly 6% to above $97 per barrel. At that time, expectations for a near-term reopening hit rock bottom, with the probability of normalization by the end of June even lower than current levels.
Subsequently, with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stating on June 4 that Iran would work with Oman to "manage the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with international law," and the resumption of loading operations at Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub, market sentiment for a mid-term recovery began to improve slightly. However, on June 8, renewed missile exchanges between Israel and Iran and attacks on petrochemical complexes reignited tensions. Through this cycle of escalation and de-escalation, structural changes in prediction market data—less than 10% probability by the end of June, rising to 28% by the end of July, and jumping to 75% by year-end—clearly illustrate the market’s consensus: little hope for a short-term resolution, ongoing mid-term uncertainty, and a gradual easing in the long run.
Oil Prices Reflect Ongoing Anxiety: Brent Holds Above $90
The ongoing blockade is being repeatedly priced into the crude oil market. As of the Asian trading session on June 9, Brent crude futures stood at $94.33 per barrel, while WTI crude futures were at $91.29 per barrel. Although both Iran and Israel announced on June 8 that they would halt military strikes against each other, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu quickly emphasized that actions against Iran were "not over yet," keeping the market highly alert to the fragile ceasefire.
Due to Iran’s restrictions, exports through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped significantly from pre-conflict levels. Some analysts warn that if the blockade continues for another one to two months, oil prices could spike to $150–$200 per barrel. The International Energy Agency’s coordinated release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves would only cover about four weeks of the supply gap, falling short of easing the systemic pressure from a prolonged blockade.
With only a 10% probability of normalization by the end of June, crude prices lack momentum for a significant short-term pullback. The market is now treating a "continued blockade" as the baseline scenario. Any new developments in diplomatic negotiations or military actions will be immediately reflected in oil prices via real-time probability data from Gate’s prediction market.
Gate Prediction Market: From Understanding Probabilities to Strategic Positioning
Gate’s prediction market offers everyday users an easy way to participate in pricing global geopolitical events. There’s no need to manage wallets, cross chains, or pay gas fees—simply log in to the app with your Gate exchange account, navigate to the "Alpha" section, and enter the "Polymarket" module to use USDT from your spot account for global event prediction trading.
In prediction markets, price itself equals probability. Taking the Strait of Hormuz as an example, users can check the "Yes" share prices for different timeframes to get a direct read on the market’s latest consensus regarding reopening. Every buy or sell order continuously updates the collective probability. Gate also provides AI-powered analysis and smart money tracking tools, helping users quickly spot capital flows and market hotspots across a vast array of events. Currently, total trading volume in prediction markets has soared from $440 million in 2024 to several tens of billions of dollars in 2026, making event trading a key infrastructure connecting global headlines with capital decisions.
Pitchside Prophet: Gate Prediction Market World Cup Event Now Live
While following interest rate decisions, Gate Prediction Market (Gate Polymarket) has also launched the limited-time "Pitchside Prophet" campaign for the 2026 World Football Festival. The total prize pool exceeds 500,000 USDT, running from June 4 to July 21, 2026. Users can register to receive free prediction vouchers, and by completing tasks such as spot, futures, CFD trading, and VIP upgrades, they can earn additional prediction and contest vouchers to participate in football event forecasts. The top 100 on the prediction points leaderboard will share 30,000 USDT and limited-edition jersey gift boxes, with an additional 5,000 USDT set aside for the champion prediction prize pool. VIP users enjoy exclusive registration rewards and jersey gift boxes. Log in to Gate now to sign up and experience the thrill of World Cup predictions in the prediction market.
Conclusion
In summary, the stepwise probabilities shown by Gate’s prediction market—10% by the end of June, 28% by the end of July, and 75% by year-end—clearly outline the market’s consensus on the timeline for the Strait of Hormuz reopening: a full resumption of passage in the short term is almost impossible, the odds of a breakthrough by late summer are limited, but normalization by year-end remains the mainstream expectation. This probability curve closely matches Brent crude’s current stability above $90 and repeated surges toward $100, underscoring the dominant influence of geopolitical events on commodity pricing. For investors tracking global energy trends, the probability data from Gate’s prediction market is no longer just a reference—it has become an essential forward-looking signal for event-driven trading strategies.
