2026 is shaping up to be a remarkable year for global capital markets. After nearly three years of stagnation, the IPO market has posted strong rebounds in both the first and second quarters. Goldman Sachs recently released a report projecting that total US IPO fundraising in 2026 could reach between $160 billion and $225 billion. This would surpass the internet boom of 2021 and may even set a new all-time annual record for IPO fundraising.
What’s truly drawing industry professionals’ attention from traditional capital markets to the crypto sector is a subtler narrative embedded in the Goldman Sachs report: As tens of billions in new stock supply flood the market, the crypto sector is simultaneously experiencing its largest pullback and sustained ETF net outflows since the 2025 peak. Has a quiet competition for capital between these two asset classes already begun?
Drawing on Goldman Sachs’ latest forecasts, the actual performance of the IPO market in the first half of 2026, and publicly available data on Bitcoin ETF flows, this article systematically reviews the structural features of the current IPO wave and provides a quantitative analysis of its potential impact on crypto market liquidity.
2026 IPO Market: From Recovery to Historic Breakthrough
In the first half of 2026, the global IPO market saw its strongest rebound in three years. According to market data, as of early June, the US had completed 40 IPOs, raising a total of about $28 billion—the best five-month performance since 2021. Across all markets, 203 IPOs have been announced so far in 2026, with 125 completed in the first quarter and 78 registered as of June 1 in the second quarter. This ranks third for a half-year period in the past decade, trailing only 548 IPOs in 2021 and 223 in 2022.
At the same time, the first-day performance of newly listed stocks has sent positive signals to the market. So far in 2026, the average first-day gain for new listings is nearly 20%, roughly in line with historical averages, indicating healthy investor appetite for new stock supply. More importantly, IPO pricing quality in this cycle appears more rational than in previous years. Analysis shows that demand for new stocks is concentrated in AI, aerospace, and digital asset-related sectors, rather than widely dispersed among companies lacking solid fundamentals. This suggests that capital allocation is becoming more targeted.
Although the number of IPOs remains below pre-pandemic peaks, the scale of fundraising has already made a qualitative leap. The $28 billion raised in the first five months exceeded even the most optimistic market expectations, providing a solid foundation for Goldman Sachs to raise its full-year forecast. This data forms the factual basis for Goldman’s subsequent upward revision.
Two Upward Revisions and the Core Logic Behind Goldman Sachs’ Forecast
Goldman Sachs has revised its US IPO market forecast upward twice this year. Initially, in early 2026, Goldman projected total IPO fundraising at $160 billion for the year, expecting a fourfold increase over 2025 driven by concentrated listings of tech and AI companies. Later, as actual issuance data continued to exceed expectations, Goldman raised its forecast to $225 billion, positioning 2026 as the largest IPO fundraising year in history.
This revision is based on three core factors:
First, the market environment has significantly improved. Goldman notes that a better IPO issuance environment, sustained strong demand for corporate equities, and investors’ structural preference for AI-related assets together have opened the IPO window wide.
Second, the window for large private companies to go public has arrived. Goldman predicts that 2026 IPOs will be driven primarily by large private companies, with fundraising expected between $80 billion and $200 billion. Besides the already successful SpaceX IPO, companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks—each valued at over $100 billion—are seen as potential candidates for listing this year.
Third, the market’s absorption capacity remains robust. Goldman’s analysts estimate that total equity supply in 2026—including IPOs, follow-on offerings, convertible bonds, and SPACs—will reach about $675 billion, while corporate stock buybacks are expected to total around $1.3 trillion, far exceeding new equity issuance. This supply-demand relationship suggests that new stock supply doesn’t necessarily create market pressure. Additionally, Goldman points out that the expected IPO fundraising accounts for roughly 1% of the total US stock market capitalization, below the long-term average of 1.5% since 1995.
SpaceX Leads: A Landmark Case in Action
Goldman’s macro narrative found its most significant validation in June 2026. On June 12, SpaceX completed a $75 billion IPO at $135 per share, issuing 555.56 million shares and reaching a valuation of $1.77 trillion. This surpassed Saudi Aramco’s $25.6 billion IPO in 2019, making it the largest IPO fundraising in history. SpaceX will list on Nasdaq, ranking seventh among US-listed companies by market capitalization.
SpaceX isn’t the only major listing. This quarter, several companies in AI infrastructure and biotech have also completed sizable IPOs. Since the start of 2026, the average first-day gain for newly listed companies has remained strong. While subsequent trading performance has varied, leading companies have seen better-than-expected market reception in their first week.
From an industry perspective, the most notable feature of this IPO wave is its concentration in AI and tech themes. Goldman specifically highlights in its report that AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are among the most anticipated IPO candidates in 2026, and their potential fundraising will be a key variable in whether the market can reach the $225 billion total in the second half of the year.
Analyzing Market Risk Controllability
Despite the record-setting $225 billion IPO fundraising forecast, the market’s absorption capacity is not unlimited. Several structural factors merit attention.
Corporate buybacks provide a buffer. As Goldman noted, corporate stock buybacks in 2026 are expected to reach about $1.3 trillion, with announced buyback plans totaling $860 billion—a historic high. This indicates that active buying from listed companies will supply substantial liquidity to the market.
Bond yields impact valuations. The US 30-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5.2%, levels not seen since the global financial crisis, and the 10-year yield has also surged. Higher discount rates affect valuation models for high-growth stocks, making IPO pricing for tech and AI companies more uncertain in the current market environment.
Gradual risk from lock-up expirations. Analysts point out that the proportion of tradable shares in IPOs is usually below 10%, but after lock-up periods expire, this can rise to about 28% within six months and to roughly 46% within a year. This means companies listed in 2026 won’t immediately release all tradable shares, but could face more significant supply pressure in 2027.
Cross-Analysis: IPO Boom and Crypto Market Liquidity
For crypto market participants, Goldman’s IPO forecast introduces an indirect variable worth watching—competition for capital.
In early June, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows reaching about $5.75 billion as of early June. The Bitcoin price dropped below $60,000 in the first week of June, marking a new low for 2026. Some market opinions attribute these outflows to institutional investors redeeming crypto assets early to participate in large IPOs like SpaceX. Others disagree. Fabian Dori, CIO of Sygnum, publicly stated that Bitcoin ETF outflows are not directly linked to IPOs such as SpaceX. Additional analysis suggests that current crypto market outflows may be more related to closing arbitrage trades rather than large-scale portfolio shifts.
Both perspectives have logical merit. The capital competition argument holds that IPO underwriters typically require large investors to commit to subscription sizes to secure allocations. If institutional investors hold both crypto and traditional assets, the latter may be prioritized when adjusting liquidity structures. The counterargument is that Bitcoin ETFs are a distinct asset class from traditional equities, and the scale of institutional rebalancing doesn’t fully match the $5.75 billion ETF outflow. Moreover, the overlap between outflow cycles and IPO timelines doesn’t necessarily imply causality.
From a broader perspective, a key parameter is the ratio between the overall crypto market size and IPO capital demand. As of June 12, global crypto market capitalization was about $2.25 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for roughly $1.24 trillion. Goldman’s forecasted $225 billion in IPO fundraising is about 10% of the current crypto market cap. While this ratio is significant in absolute terms, it only involves primary market fundraising, not secondary market trading volume, so its direct impact on the crypto market depends on the direction of capital flows.
Looking at recent crypto asset prices, as of June 12, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $63,500, up about 2% in 24 hours, and Ethereum is at roughly $1,670. This suggests that after the latest correction, the crypto market has seen a degree of short-term recovery, with no sustained panic selling.
Conclusion
Goldman Sachs’ $225 billion IPO forecast for 2026 is grounded in structural improvements seen in actual issuance data from the first half of the year. SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO set a new global record, directly validating this trend. From a supply-demand perspective, corporate buyback volumes and the share of IPOs relative to total market capitalization indicate the market’s capacity to absorb new supply, though rising bond yields and gradual lock-up expirations are mid-term variables to watch.
For the crypto market, the capital competition effect from the IPO boom has moved from theoretical speculation to practical observation. The sustained net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs since mid-May, coinciding with major IPO windows, make capital diversion a variable worth monitoring. However, current data suggests that crypto market adjustments may also involve other structural factors, such as arbitrage trade closures and a temporary weakening of crypto’s own narrative. Bitcoin’s rebound to around $63,500 on June 12 shows the market hasn’t fallen into a one-way outflow channel.
The interplay between crypto assets and traditional IPO market capital flows may become more pronounced in the second half of 2026. The listing pace of potential large IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic, the recovery of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and the direction of Federal Reserve interest rate policy will be three core indicators for tracking capital movement between asset classes.
