June 12, 2026 marks a historic milestone as Elon Musk’s SpaceX officially lists on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The IPO will issue 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising a base amount of $75 billion and valuing the company at approximately $1.77 trillion. What does this figure mean? It shatters the previous global fundraising record set by Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion IPO in 2019—SpaceX’s capital raise is nearly three times that amount. In terms of valuation, SpaceX will leapfrog Tesla and enter the top ten of U.S. listed companies by market cap.
Yet behind these staggering numbers, the market’s valuation of SpaceX remains sharply divided.
$1.77 Trillion Valuation and Over $250 Billion in Subscription Demand: A Record-Breaking Capital Feast
The IPO’s market enthusiasm has far exceeded expectations. According to sources, SpaceX has attracted more than $250 billion in investor subscription demand, with oversubscription rates reaching 3.5 to 4 times the planned issuance. This means that even with a fundraising target of $75 billion, market demand is nearly four times higher. Underwriters also hold a 30-day overallotment option, allowing them to purchase up to an additional 83.33 million shares, corresponding to roughly $11.2 billion in extra capital. Leading institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Barclays are serving as bookrunners for this offering.
On the financial front, SpaceX is still operating at a loss. The prospectus shows that in 2025, the company generated $18.7 billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $2.6 billion. In Q1 2026, revenue was $4.694 billion, with a net loss of $4.276 billion. As of the end of March, accumulated debt stood at $29.1 billion. Breaking down by business segment, Starlink is the sole profitable "cash cow": in 2025, Starlink-driven connectivity revenue reached $11.387 billion, with operating profit at $4.423 billion and an impressive operating margin of 38.8%. The rocket launch business remains loss-making; the space segment brought in $4.086 billion in 2025 revenue but incurred an operating loss of $657 million. AI operations, due to the integration of xAI, have resulted in substantial losses amid fierce competition and declining gross margins.
The rationale behind the $1.77 trillion valuation is not based on current profitability, but rather on expectations for SpaceX’s future business landscape. The company now covers three core segments—rocket launches and space transportation, Starlink satellite internet, and AI (with the full acquisition of xAI completed in February 2026). This "space + communications + AI" triad forms the foundation of the market’s bet on SpaceX’s long-term growth potential.
Dissecting SpaceX’s $1.77 Trillion "Triad" Valuation Logic
Orbital AI Data Centers: The Central Narrative from Prospectus to IPO Roadshow
During the IPO roadshow, SpaceX’s leadership focused on presenting their orbital AI data center initiative to investors. Attendees report that President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Brett Johnson, at a Goldman Sachs-led investor meeting, stated that the company aims to complete the first demonstration launch of space-based AI computing infrastructure by the end of 2027—earlier than the "as soon as 2028" timeline disclosed in the prospectus. The initial phase will be a demonstration system to validate technical feasibility, followed by full commercial rollout.
From a technical standpoint, Musk released a video ahead of the IPO detailing the AI data center satellite design. The satellite, codenamed "AI1," features massive 70-meter wingspan solar panels, supporting an average computing load of 120 kW and peaking at 150 kW—roughly equivalent to the power consumption of a single NVIDIA GB300 AI server rack. Musk noted that building orbital AI data centers isn’t an insurmountable engineering challenge; current Starlink V3 satellites already possess most of the necessary technology, and the AI satellite’s structure is even simpler than Starlink’s.
SpaceX has applied for regulatory approval to launch up to 1 million space-based data center satellites. The IPO documents claim SpaceX is "the only company with a commercially viable path to building large-scale orbital AI computing systems." In roadshow materials, SpaceX further emphasized that the AI-related market opportunity could reach $23 trillion, and outlined future plans to use launch capabilities to build data centers and other infrastructure in space.
However, the orbital data center concept still faces significant engineering uncertainties. Its success is closely tied to the fully reusable Starship rocket project, which remains behind early expectations and has yet to demonstrate the rapid reusability needed for large-scale, low-cost satellite deployment. The 2028 deployment timeline in the prospectus also leaves room for adjustment should Starship development or satellite manufacturing face delays.
Rational Breakdown of the Valuation Debate: Is $1.77 Trillion Justified?
SpaceX’s valuation has sparked considerable debate. Supporters point to clear competitive advantages in commercial space: the company commands 83% of total launch volume from Earth to orbit and has reduced launch costs by over 95%. Starlink has surpassed 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries and regions, providing a stable stream of recurring revenue. On the demand side, SpaceX secured two major pre-IPO contracts: a compute leasing agreement with Anthropic worth $1.25 billion per month, and a $30 billion cloud services deal with Google, paying $920 million monthly from October 2026 to June 2029. Together, these contracts lock in over $2.1 billion in monthly recurring revenue. Additionally, SpaceX and Tesla are jointly planning a Terafab chip factory in the U.S., aiming to integrate the entire "rocket–satellite–chip" supply chain.
On the other hand, critics argue that SpaceX’s valuation is heavily inflated by "expectation premium." Wall Street’s famed short-seller James Chanos publicly stated that SpaceX’s IPO is driven more by investor enthusiasm for Musk and the AI boom than by financial fundamentals, saying, "No reasonable business assumptions can support SpaceX’s valuation." Michael Burry, the inspiration for "The Big Short," concluded after reviewing SpaceX’s S-1 prospectus that "nothing in the document supports a $1 trillion, let alone $2 trillion, valuation." NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran estimated SpaceX’s true value at only $1.3 trillion, citing overvaluation of its AI business. Independent research firm Morningstar was even more aggressive, valuing the IPO shares at just $63—less than half the prospectus price.
Logically, the core issue in the SpaceX valuation debate centers on the monetization potential of its AI business. xAI’s Grok currently generates negligible direct subscription revenue from both consumer and enterprise segments. The $920 million monthly contract with Google is backed by over $10 billion in capital expenditures, including GPU purchases, supercomputing center construction, and electricity costs. The AI sector’s rapid technological iteration means SpaceX must continually reinvest launch and Starlink earnings into next-generation hardware and data center upgrades to maintain its "AI advantage," driving up capital intensity: in FY2023, capital expenditures were just 42% of revenue, but in Q1 2026, this ratio soared to 215%. Meanwhile, rivals OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly accelerating their own IPOs. Without a clear technical or cost leadership in AI models, SpaceX’s AI operations resemble low-margin "hardware leasing" more than a high-moat proprietary ecosystem.
Industry Chain Impact: Secondary Market Opportunities from the SpaceX IPO
Despite valuation controversies, SpaceX’s IPO is already impacting global capital markets. On the demand side, SpaceX allocated 25% to 30% of the offering to retail investors—far above the typical 5% to 10% in major IPOs. The company has designated Robinhood, SoFi, E-Trade, Charles Schwab, and Fidelity as online brokers for stock distribution, with Fidelity lowering the retail participation threshold from $500,000 to just $2,000.
However, due to International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), investors from Mainland China and Hong Kong are barred from participating in SpaceX’s primary market IPO subscription. Underwriters have been instructed not to accept orders from these regions, and the ban is so broad that even private banking clients are excluded.
Unable to participate directly, Asian investors have shifted focus to SpaceX-related industry chain stocks. In China’s A-share market, Starlink ground terminal supplier Xinwei Communication (300136.SZ) and rocket specialty metal supplier Western Superconductor (688122.SH) have attracted attention. Apple and Tesla supplier Lens Technology (300433.SZ) identified commercial space as a new growth engine, and its stock price has risen nearly 50% in 2026. Brokerage research reports suggest that SpaceX’s Starlink network, Starship mass production, and space computing initiatives will drive order and valuation growth for supply chain companies. In Taiwan, satellite component makers Ching Peng Industrial, Wistron NeWeb, and Senao Technology have all confirmed supplying parts to SpaceX, making them key gateways for Asian investors seeking exposure to the SpaceX supply chain.
Additionally, space-themed ETFs have become indirect investment channels. Since its launch in March, the Tema Space Innovators ETF has risen 29%, with SpaceX holdings accounting for about 6.49% of the portfolio. Globally, satellite operators like France’s Eutelsat and Germany’s OHB have seen double-digit stock gains this year.
Gate Direct IPO Access: How to Invest in SpaceX?
For investors unable to participate in SpaceX’s primary market IPO through traditional channels, Gate offers a direct IPO access service as an alternative. This digital IPO participation channel allows users to submit subscription requests before the official listing and use USDT for purchase. Once listed, shares are directly allocated to users’ Gate stock accounts, providing a seamless "instant allocation, direct-to-account" experience.
SpaceX is the inaugural project for Gate’s direct IPO access. The subscription window opens June 9, 2026, at 10:00 UTC and closes June 12 at 04:00 UTC, lasting 66 hours. The reference subscription price is $135 per share, with a minimum participation of 100 USDT and a maximum of 500,000 USDT. Allocation weight is calculated using an average locked amount mechanism: the system distributes shares based on each user’s hourly weighted average locked amount during the subscription period, relative to all participants. The earlier you subscribe, the higher your average locked amount and allocation weight. Shares are expected to be allocated between 14:00–15:00 UTC on June 12, with trading starting at 13:30 UTC. Allocated shares are immediately tradable in the Gate stock section via App v8.21.5 or later, with no lock-up period.
It’s important to note that this subscription is an "intent subscription" and does not guarantee allocation. Depending on the actual IPO issuance and Gate’s allocation quota, users may receive full, partial, or no allocation. If the final IPO price fluctuates within 20% of the reference price, allocation proceeds automatically; if it exceeds 20%, a secondary confirmation is required.
On the secondary market, Gate’s stock products support USDT trading for over 10,000 U.S. stocks and ETFs, covering NYSE, Nasdaq, and other major markets, with fractional shares available from as little as 0.01 shares.
Conclusion
SpaceX’s IPO is a classic test of the tension between "expected valuation" and "fundamental reality." In terms of fundraising scale and subscription enthusiasm, this "IPO of the century" is already a done deal. But from the perspective of valuation logic and AI monetization, market divergence is equally pronounced. The orbital AI data center initiative is the most imaginative—and most uncertain—element of the valuation narrative. For investors, whether participating in Gate’s direct IPO access, trading U.S. stocks in the secondary market, or investing indirectly through industry chain stocks, a clear understanding of this logic framework is essential. In the high-investment, long-cycle arenas of space and AI, whether SpaceX can turn today’s "expectations" into tomorrow’s "reality" will remain a focal point for capital markets in the years ahead.
