As of August 18, 2025, the price of Pi coin (PI) on Gate is $0.382, having risen slightly by 2% in the past 24 hours, but still down 14.20% for the week, significantly underperforming the overall cryptocurrency market (-0.10%) and the Layer 1 sector (+1.50%) during the same period. The current price hovers around the key support level of $0.38, with a market capitalization maintained at $2.99B, while the 24-hour trading volume has dropped to $35.19M (a daily shrinkage of 46%), highlighting weak market liquidity and cautious investor sentiment.
Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment
- Short-term Volatility and Key Thresholds
- Support Level $0.37–$0.38: The price has tested this range multiple times recently; if it stabilizes, it may trigger a technical rebound; conversely, if it breaks below, it may drop to $0.335 (June low).
- Resistance Level $0.44: PI has failed to break this level in the last 3 months, retreating 12% after an unsuccessful attempt on August 16. Breaking this level may open up upward potential, targeting $0.52.
- Declining Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume is only $66.44M, and insufficient liquidity exacerbates the risk of price volatility.
- Divergence in Market Sentiment
- Token Unlock Pressure: In the next 30 days, 16.7 million PI will be unlocked (accounting for 2.1% of the circulating supply), of which 10 million were released on August 16. The exchange inventory reached 411 million (a year-to-date high), accumulating selling pressure risk.
- Increased Correlation with Meme Coins: The price correlation of PI with Meme coins like DOGE and SHIB reached 0.76–0.89, indicating converging volatility attributes, making it susceptible to market sentiment in the short term.
Whale Activities and Unlock Events: Supply and Demand Game Intensifies
- Potential Impact of Whale Accumulation: On-chain monitoring shows that an anonymous wallet has continuously purchased PI since April, currently holding 351 million coins (the sixth largest address on the network), while exchange reserves have decreased by 5% during the same period. This move alleviates selling pressure in the short term, but concentrated holdings imply future dumping risks.
- August Unlocking Storm: This month, 276 million PI will be released (accounting for 3.5% of the circulating supply), a scale equivalent to 2.4 times the average daily trading volume. Historical data shows that similar events have previously triggered a 34% crash. To hedge against selling pressure, the community is promoting voluntary locking - over 3.3 million PI were locked at the beginning of August, but whether this can offset inflationary pressure remains uncertain.
Technical Analysis: Intertwined Bullish and Bearish Signals
- Key Indicators Diverging:
- RSI is at 38.4 (close to oversold territory), suggesting a potential rebound;
- MACD shows a slight negative value, reflecting that the downtrend has not reversed.
- Pattern Structure: The price is at the edge of a descending wedge; if it breaks $0.40 with increased volume, it may trigger a rebound to $0.67 (June high); conversely, losing $0.375 will accelerate the search for a bottom.
Long-term Forecast: Three-Stage Scenarios and Core Variables
Institutions exhibit extreme divergence in their price predictions for the end of 2025, with the core logic revolving around the "authenticity of user scale" and the race for "token utility implementation":
| Prediction Type | price range | Core logic | probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative scenario | $0.4 – $1.5 | Early user selling pressure + lack of ecological applications + technical bottlenecks (TPS only 50,000) | high |
| Neutral Scenario | $3.78 | Assuming to log in to Binance/Coinbase and activate the trading demand of 45 million users. | middle |
| optimistic scenario | $620+ | Need to achieve Visa level 65,000 TPS + tens of millions of merchants payment implementation + global compliance license | extremely low |
Investor Operation Suggestions
- Short-term (1–3 months): Focus on the support level of $0.36 and the breakout signal at $0.44, closely monitor the progress of selling pressure digestion after the unlocking at the end of August and the listing progress on Binance.
- Long-term (2–3 years): If DeFi integration and cross-border payment scenarios are implemented, the price may evolve towards $5 – $10. Recommended dollar-cost averaging strategy + 5-year holding period, allocation ratio suggested to be less than 5% of total assets.
Conclusion: Waiting for Ecological Outbreak and Liquidity Breakthrough
The core contradiction in the current valuation of Pi coin lies in the balance between a user base of 60 million and a potential supply of 100 billion. Although technical indicators show signs of oversold rebound, breakthroughs still rely on substantial progress in the ecosystem: exchange listings, mainnet performance improvements, and merchant application implementations. Investors should be wary of potential downward risks in the market in September, flexibly positioning around $0.38 as the bull-bear dividing line.
