Pi Network token unlock speed drops by 60%! MiCA approval catalyzes a new round of listings

Pi Network’s price has remained in a narrow range between $0.1613 and $0.2875 over the past three months, but three major catalysts are converging: the token unlock rate will drop sharply from 190 million this month to 76.3 million by next June, a 60% decrease; recent investments in OpenMind are bearing fruit; and the MiCA application in Europe will make it easier for exchanges in that region to list the token.

Three-Month Sideways Wyckoff Accumulation Phase Set to End

(Source: Trading View)

The three-day chart shows Pi Network’s price has been consolidating over the past few months, remaining within a tight range between the support at $0.1613 and resistance at $0.2875. This three-month-long consolidation is significant in technical analysis, as it often signals a major directional breakout is imminent. Over the past three months, Pi Network’s price has stayed within a narrow range, and the token is likely to end this consolidation in the coming weeks.

This consolidation likely indicates the token is in the accumulation phase as described by Wyckoff theory or Dow theory. In both theories, the accumulation phase is typically followed by a markup phase, where the asset price rises parabolically. Wyckoff theory, introduced by legendary Wall Street trader Richard Wyckoff in the 1930s, centers on the idea that markets are dominated by large institutions (“smart money”) who accumulate positions at low prices, absorb retail selling during sideways trading, then drive the price higher to trigger momentum buying.

Zcash’s recent price surge is a prime example, occurring after two years of consolidation. From 2022 to 2024, Zcash fluctuated between $20 and $40, and many investors believed the project was dead. However, at the end of 2024, Zcash suddenly broke through resistance, soaring to over $80 in a matter of weeks—an increase of more than 200%. This case provides empirical support for the accumulation theory behind Pi Network.

If Pi Network’s price breaks above the upper channel of $0.2875, its upward trend will be confirmed. Technically, a channel breakout should be accompanied by increased volume, attracting momentum traders and breakout-following strategies. If a breakout occurs, the next key resistance to watch will be the psychological level of $0.50. Breaking this resistance will increase the likelihood of a rise to $1.

However, downside risk must also be considered. If support at $0.1612 is broken, it would signal the possibility of further declines. This support is the absolute low of the past three months; a decisive break could trigger stop-loss orders and panic selling, pushing the price down to $0.10 or even lower. Therefore, $0.1612 is a key battleground for both bulls and bears.

Token Unlock Rate Down 60% Monthly—Inflation Pressure Plummets

(Source: PiScan)

The Pi Network token unlock rate is expected to slow down before next June, which is the most important fundamental factor for a price recovery. One reason Pi Network’s price has crashed more than 90% from its February peak is ongoing token unlocks, which will continue for the next few years. Since the February mainnet launch, the token unlock rate has been on the rise, with 190 million tokens set to be unlocked this month.

On the positive side, the unlock rate will continue to slow through next June. Data compiled by PiScan shows that the network will unlock 121 million tokens in January, with this number continuing to fall until it hits a low of 76.3 million by next June. From 190 million to 76.3 million is a 60% drop, and this sharp slowdown in unlocks will significantly reduce sell pressure in the market.

Pi Network Token Unlock Schedule

December (current): 190 million

January 2026: 121 million (down 36%)

June 2026: 76.3 million (down 60% from December)

Token unlocks are usually negative for cryptocurrencies because they increase the circulating supply, leading to high inflation. In economics, when supply increases and demand remains unchanged, prices naturally fall. Pi Network’s crash since February is largely attributed to continuous large unlocks, with nearly 100 million new tokens each month making it difficult for any buying to absorb the supply.

Therefore, the slowdown in Pi Network’s unlock rate is positive for its price. When the monthly unlock drops from 190 million to 76.3 million, the new supply the market must absorb falls by 60%. If buying pressure remains stable or increases during this period, supply and demand balance will improve significantly, creating conditions for a price rebound. Historically, many cryptocurrencies have seen significant rebounds after large unlocks end or slow down, as structural factors suppressing price disappear.

From an inflation perspective, assuming Pi Network’s current circulating supply is 5 billion (hypothetical, as official data is not fully transparent), a December unlock of 190 million equates to a 3.8% monthly inflation rate and an annualized rate of 45%. This inflation level far exceeds any major cryptocurrency and even many fiat currencies. When unlocks fall to 76.3 million, monthly inflation drops to about 1.5%, annualized at about 18%. While still high, this is within the normal range for some PoS blockchains.

OpenMind Investment Bears Fruit—Circle Partnership Unlocks AI Payment Potential

This potential Pi Network rebound coincides with strong development momentum. One bullish factor is the recent investment in OpenMind, accelerating Pi’s shift toward the burgeoning artificial intelligence industry. OpenMind announced this week it has partnered with Circle, the creator of the USDC stablecoin. The two companies will jointly develop a foundational machine-to-machine payment system.

According to the statement, the companies will jointly promote USDC-based micropayments and build infrastructure for autonomous AI transactions. Although the statement did not mention Pi Coin, a future partnership remains possible. This possibility gives Pi Network long-term potential. If OpenMind’s machine-to-machine payment system succeeds and later integrates Pi Coin as an alternative payment option, it would create real demand for Pi Network beyond pure speculation.

Machine-to-machine payments are key infrastructure for the AI era. When AI agents need to purchase data, call APIs, or rent computing resources, traditional manual payments are too inefficient. Blockchain-based micropayments enable automated, real-time small transactions—perfectly matching AI agents’ needs. As the world’s second-largest stablecoin issuer (USDC market cap over $50 billion), Circle’s technical strength and compliance status provide a solid foundation for this vision.

The OpenMind-Circle partnership signals that Pi Network is seeking real-world use cases rather than just focusing on “mining” and “community.” This strategic shift is crucial to boosting Pi Network’s long-term value. Many critics doubt Pi Network’s real-world utility, but if OpenMind successfully integrates Pi Coin into the AI payment ecosystem, those doubts will be dispelled.

MiCA Application Paves the Way for European Listings

Another key bullish factor is Pi Network’s MiCA application in Europe, which will make it easier for exchanges in the region to list the app. The EU Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is the world’s most comprehensive crypto regulatory framework, and any project wishing to operate legally in the EU must comply with MiCA.

Pi Network’s application for MiCA compliance demonstrates its move from the gray area toward full compliance. In the past, Pi Network was excluded from many major exchanges due to its long-delayed mainnet, slow KYC progress, and opaque tokenomics. Even after its February mainnet launch, top exchanges like Binance and Coinbase have yet to list Pi Network, partly due to compliance concerns.

If Pi Network successfully obtains MiCA certification, regulated exchanges in Europe will be able to list the token legally. This would significantly boost Pi Network’s liquidity and accessibility. Currently, Pi Network is mostly traded on second- or third-tier exchanges, where liquidity is thin and spreads are wide. Entry into major European exchanges would bring a qualitative leap in trading volume and liquidity, which typically drives up prices.

Timing-wise, MiCA’s full implementation aligns closely with Pi Network’s unlock slowdown and the end of technical consolidation. This synchronization of multiple catalysts could trigger a strong price rebound. When fundamentals improve (unlock slowdown), regulatory progress (MiCA), technical partnerships (OpenMind-Circle), and technical breakouts (channel upper limit) all occur simultaneously, markets often see outsized gains.

$0.50 Psychological Barrier and $1 Ultimate Target

If Pi Coin’s price breaks above the channel upper limit of $0.2875, its uptrend will be confirmed. This breakout needs to be accompanied by increased volume and several consecutive daily closes above the upper limit to confirm it’s not a false breakout. In technical analysis, false breakouts are common traps—prices briefly break resistance then quickly fall back, luring in breakout buyers before reversing. Thus, confirmation requires both time and volume.

After confirmation, the next key resistance to watch is the psychological barrier at $0.50. From $0.2875 to $0.50 is a 74% increase—an attractive move for short-term traders. The $0.50 level, as a round number, often attracts a large number of limit sell orders, as many investors set profit targets at whole numbers. Breaking this requires stronger buying and clear fundamental catalysts.

A break above $0.50 will increase the likelihood of a rise to $1. $1 is a widely circulated psychological target in the Pi Network community, with many early participants seeing it as fair compensation for years of mining and waiting. Technically, from $0.50 to $1 is a 100% gain, and such doubling often happens in the acceleration phase of a bull cycle. If Bitcoin and the overall crypto market remain strong in the first half of 2026, Pi Network reaching $1 is not impossible.

However, downside risk must also be considered. If support at $0.1612 is broken, further declines are likely. This level is the absolute low of the past three months and a psychological defense line for many investors. A decisive break would undermine the accumulation theory, signaling the market may enter a new downtrend. The next downside target could be the round number of $0.10, or even lower levels seen before the February mainnet launch.