I noticed something interesting in the market data over the past few days. The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is showing extremely low levels, around -2.28, even surpassing the lows seen in 2018 and 2022. For those unfamiliar with this indicator, the MVRV measures the gap between the market value and the realized value of on-chain bitcoins.

What’s surprising is that this MVRV indicator technically suggests a strong downtrend zone, usually associated with buying opportunities. But here’s the problem: analysts point to the massive influx of institutional capital via ETFs, which has altered the cost basis structure. As a result, the MVRV becomes less reliable as a classic buy signal.

Meanwhile, I’m observing the NUPL indicator, which measures overall market sentiment. It’s currently at 0.197, remaining in the hope zone and far from the true panic moments we saw in December 2018 or November 2022. During those real capitulations, the NUPL plunged into negative territory. We’re not there yet. Most investors are still paper-profits, even though confidence has clearly been shaken.

So here’s the signal: the market shows signs of weakness, but no real panic. The MVRV screams for a bottom, but market sentiment says we’re not there yet. An interesting divergence to watch.