I just noticed something interesting in today's movements. Jerome Powell makes reassuring statements about interest rates, bonds respond well, but the stock and crypto markets still end up losing momentum anyway. The reason? Oil keeps rising.

This morning, the Federal Reserve chairman made a key announcement: for now, the Fed will ignore energy price shocks related to Iran and keep rates stable. Basically, Powell is saying they won't react in panic in the short term. The bond market immediately bought it up. The 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.35% and the 2-year yields fell to 3.83%. Even the probability of rate hikes in 2026 collapsed from 25% to 5%.

It sounds good in theory, right? But here’s where it gets complicated. While Powell was calming the bond market, WTI crude oil continued its climb, reaching nearly $105 per barrel, a 5.3% increase just on Monday. That’s what really moved the markets afterward.

The Nasdaq ended down 0.75% and the S&P 500 declined 0.4%. Bitcoin also gave back its initial gains, retreating to levels close to $66,500. Right now, it’s around $72,270 with a positive change of 1.47% in 24 hours, but that move was more of a recovery.

What’s happening is that risk assets are pressured by oil. Jerome Powell acknowledged in his comments that they will eventually have to face this issue, but for now, they’re waiting to see what the real economic impact will be. Meanwhile, the market is navigating between the Fed’s calmness and energy price uncertainty.

This tension is what’s keeping crypto volatile. When oil rises, investors become more cautious with speculative assets. Jerome Powell can say whatever he wants about rates, but if energy keeps pushing higher, funds will continue to seek safety first.