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Invisible Stock God: managing 5 billion USD, an annualized return of 20% for 16 years—this achievement can be considered divine, outperforming 99.9% of fund managers.
But before writing "Investment Lessons I Learned from Darwin," he was almost unknown.
Prasad founded Nalanda Capital in 2007, investing only in Indian stocks, focusing on small and medium-sized companies. By 2023, the post-fee annualized return was 20.3%.
His investment philosophy has three keywords:
1. Avoid. Shift the focus of investment decisions from "what to choose" to "what not to choose."
Explicitly excluded categories include: state-owned enterprises, high-leverage companies, merger and acquisition addicts, turnaround distressed companies, automobile companies, airlines, contract manufacturers, textile OEMs, and rapidly changing tech industries.
Prasad would rather make the second kind of mistake—"missing good companies"—than the first kind—"buying the wrong company." He explained this brilliantly using Bayesian theory in his book.
2. Buy (High ROCE). The only core screening metric is a historical ROCE (return on capital employed) of at least 20% for over 10 years.
No forward-looking predictions, only focus on proven competitive advantages over time. Prefer simple, boring, predictable industries with slow change (paints, underwear, electrical products).
3. Hold forever. Self-described as a "permanent owner" rather than a speculator, with the motto "Don’t be lazy, be especially lazy."
Over 16 years, he only exited 9 companies, holding each for an average of 11-14 years. He sells only in three cases: management integrity issues, fundamental deterioration in capital allocation, or initial investment misjudgment. Never sells due to high valuation.
Prasad’s methodology is: capital markets, like nature, only the most "robust" species can survive long-term. He extracts three key concepts from evolution—eliminate the unfit (avoid losers), identify the fit (buy winners), patiently wait for compounding (hold forever)—as the three pillars of investing.
He extensively uses biological metaphors in his book: sea urchins surviving millions of years (robustness), bee foraging strategies (satisfaction rather than optimality), silver fox domestication experiments (observable management quality).
But I discovered a secret: Nalanda Capital’s heavy position was built during the 2008 financial crisis, when the Indian market fell 60%. This was a huge starting advantage. So, both the methodology and timing contributed to his "myth."
Furthermore, by 2024, the fund peaked, but in 2025, Nalanda Capital’s net value sharply declined, and since inception, returns may have dropped to 15-17%.
And, Prasad is also selling stocks—never say "forever" too easily.
What a brutal mean reversion! Compared to that, only Buffett is truly a "god," even though he later also returned to index-like returns.
So, using Prasad’s methodology, which Chinese companies would he buy?
I built a framework with Claude and studied it; the answer is:
None.
The closest is Moutai, because it’s a state-owned enterprise—avoid; Tencent is somewhat acceptable, but its business is too complex.
If lowering standards, the AI version of Prasad only barely considers NetEase.