The Federal Reserve's dot plot has exploded, 9 out of 18 people are calling for a rate hike this year, 6 even think it might happen several times.

I thought June could ease the market, but it turns out these folks have locked in the probability of rate hikes until the end of the year, waiting for a dip to buy again.

It was very clear this morning, $BTC if it falls below 65,000 in the short term, the bias is bearish, the high point has moved down from 67,200 to 66,400, and support further down is 64,250-63,850 — two days ago, this was the key zone for a breakout to turn bullish.

Looking at the chart now, around 64k fluctuates, with a 24-hour drop of 2.54%.

Every time 67-68k retraces, the script is pretty much the same: first drop to 65-64k, then a rebound. But this rebound, as long as it doesn’t re-break above 66,200, support will shift down to 63,800.

Short position at 65,750-66,000, take profit at 64,666, 64,255, stop at 66,300.

Long position at 63,888-63,666, take profit at 64,800, 65,250, stop at 63,300.

I really am convinced, at the beginning of the month I was still hoping for a rate cut, now I see the hawkish dot plot, every time this “hope-disappointment” switch happens, it’s first a rally then a sell-off, emotions are repeatedly rubbed.

Don’t chase after the dip, if it breaks, accept it.

Currently no positions, wait for this dip to finish before looking for an entry, don’t pretend to be a guru, don’t get caught up in the hype.

Speaking of which, I suddenly remembered something. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)’s preferred stock STRC closed at $89 yesterday, the lowest since IPO, with a yield soaring to 12.9%.

The company immediately came out saying “selling $BTC can pay dividends for 32 years” — translating, it’s an indirect admission that there’s a possibility of paying dividends by selling coins.

This matter actually has a significant impact. If STRC continues to fall, the market will keep an eye on Strategy’s $BTC cost basis, once it approaches that level, liquidity expectations across the sector will be suppressed.

$ETH and altcoins will also be shaken, funds will first hide in $USDT/$USDC, and in the futures market, long positions need to be cautious of chain liquidations.

Do you think this rate hike expectation will materialize early, or will it be like before, loud thunder but little rain? #我的Gate交易时刻 #沃什首秀美联储利率不变 #预测世界杯加拿大VS卡塔尔