Third quarter of 2025, Bitcoin price Expected to pump 25%, reaching a historic high of 135,000 USD. This bold prediction comes from the UK major financial institution Standard Chartered, which pointed out in its latest report that due to a significant inflow of institutional funds, the market is breaking through the past halving cycle’s correction pattern and entering a new growth phase.
The current trading price of Bitcoin is around 109,000 dollars. If it rises to 135,000 dollars as predicted within two months, it will mark a complete break from the historical pattern of price decline 18 months after the halving.
Standard Chartered Bank: ETFs and Corporate Bitcoin Purchases Changing Historical Trends
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that the current rise of Bitcoin is mainly driven by two unprecedented factors:
- Massive inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds)
- The wave of corporations incorporating Bitcoin into their financial reserves.
Data shows that in the second quarter of 2025, ETFs and corporate treasuries collectively purchased over 245,000 BTC. The bank predicts that this number will further increase in the third and fourth quarters. Kendrick emphasized: "Bitcoin has now broken free from the previous structural pattern of ‘18 months of decline after halving,’ as the new buying structure has completely changed the market logic."
Breaking the Halving Cycle: The Market Enters a New Paradigm
Bitcoin experiences a halving event every four years, each halving reduces miner rewards and has historically formed a pattern of rising followed by falling prices. For example, the halvings in 2016 and 2020 were followed by price corrections approximately 18 months later.
However, unlike previous rounds, there was no significant decline after the halving in April 2024. On the contrary, due to the launch of ETF products and large enterprises continuously purchasing BTC, this round of the market shows a trend of sustained strength.
Short-term market fluctuations have not changed the long-term rise trend
Although there has been a net outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recently, such as a recorded outflow of 342 million dollars in early July, most institutions believe this is just a short-term phenomenon. Standard Chartered Bank still maintains a strong view, believing that the rising trend of Bitcoin is not affected by this, and the price is still expected to break through 135,000 dollars in the third quarter.
At the same time, Kirill Kretov from the analysis platform CoinPanel pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in a "structural accumulation phase," with prices likely fluctuating in the range of $95,000 to $115,000, but primary funds are continuing to buy.
Long-term Forecast: Will There Be a Super Bull Market from 2025 to 2030?
Standard Chartered is not only optimistic about this quarter but also predicts that Bitcoin will break 200,000 USD by the end of 2025 and reach 500,000 USD by 2028. Other mainstream institutions have also provided bold predictions:
- VanEck: Expects a "double peak" trend to form in 2025, reaching 180,000 USD mid-year, and possibly hitting a new high by the end of the year.
- Finder.com expert panel: Expects an average price of 161,000 USD by the end of 2025.
- ARK Invest: Expects the fundamental target price for Bitcoin to be 1.2 million USD by 2030, with optimistic expectations reaching 2.4 million USD.
These predictions are based on the logic of continued rising institutional adoption and the macroeconomic environment driving asset diversification, further supporting Bitcoin’s status as "Digital Gold 2.0."
Potential Risks Investors Should Be Aware Of
Although the market is filled with optimism, some experts remind to stay rational. For example, Paul Howard from Wincent pointed out that if Bitcoin rises to $200,000 by the end of the year, it would require an additional market capitalization of about $1 trillion, which is quite challenging to achieve in the short term. He is more inclined to believe that a rise to $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year is a more realistic target, and noted that the macroeconomic and regulatory environment will still have a significant impact on market trends.
Summary: Bitcoin May Reshape Halving Cycle Perception
Standard Chartered’s prediction represents a significant shift in traditional financial institutions’ attitudes towards crypto assets. If Bitcoin can successfully break through $135,000 this quarter and set a new high, it will mean that the halving cycle model has been completely overturned.
Regardless of whether the final rise can reach the predicted height, this new round of bull market driven by ETFs and corporate coin purchases is redefining the market structure of Bitcoin.
