The cryptocurrency market has just experienced a roller coaster. According to CoinGlass data, over 100,000 people globally have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount reaching 268 million USD. Amid this market turmoil, a key indicator is attracting the close attention of seasoned traders.
The BTC/Gold Oscillator indicator has been hovering around -1.8, a level that historically corresponds to the market cycle bottom, and is also a precursor to Bitcoin starting to outperform gold.
01 Market Cap Gap: Bitcoin vs. Gold
When downloading a new game, you pay attention to its number of players and market size. The asset world is no different; market capitalization is the core metric for measuring its scale.
The current market value of Bitcoin is approximately $2.5 trillion, while the market value of gold is as high as $26.3 trillion. There is an astonishing gap of $23.8 trillion between the two, with gold being 10.5 times the size of Bitcoin.
This data reveals the positioning of Bitcoin in the face of traditional wealth storage assets. Even if Bitcoin price Reaching 1 million USD, its market value is only about 75% of the scale of gold.
To fully catch up with the market value of gold, the price of Bitcoin needs to reach about $1.33 million. This clear gap provides traders and investors with specific reference coordinates.
02 Market Observation: Turbulent October
October is usually referred to as "Uptober" by cryptocurrency enthusiasts, as it has historically been a month of gains. However, October of 2025 presents a different scenario.
According to the data, October 2025 has become the second worst October in Bitcoin’s history. Geopolitical tensions and renewed trade concerns have led to a widespread sell-off of risk assets.
On October 10, Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, triggering significant market fluctuations. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by more than 10% and 20% respectively on that day, while several altcoins saw declines of over 80%.
In this crash, the crypto derivatives market experienced the "largest leverage liquidation in history," with over $19 billion in positions liquidated in a single day. The largest single liquidation occurred in Hyperliquid-BTC, valued at $11.8563 million.
03 Rare Signal: BTC/Gold Ratio Indicates Trend Reversal
In the midst of market turbulence, a key indicator has caught the attention of analysts. The BTC to gold ratio oscillator has dropped to around -1.8, a level that has historically only appeared in market bottom regions.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson stated that the chart "blatantly warns" that now may be a good time to "sell gold and buy Bitcoin."
This rare signal indicates that Bitcoin may start to outperform gold. When gold prices peak and Bitcoin signals approach the bottom, the risk-reward ratio of the cryptocurrency may be more attractive than traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Historically, Bitcoin has only closed below in October four times in the past 15 years. Despite a weak start in early October, there is still a 73% chance of turning bullish by the end of the month, maintaining its reputation as "Uptober."
04 Price Analysis: Gold Pullback, Bitcoin Stabilization
On October 20, spot gold fell below $4230/ounce, down more than $45 from the daily high. This decline in the precious metal stands in stark contrast to the stabilization of Bitcoin.
On the same day, the cryptocurrency market strengthened across the board, with Bitcoin rising by 1.58% to $108,695.5. Ethereum increased by 2.79%, and other major cryptocurrencies also saw gains.
Bitcoin shows signs of stability around $107,000. Technical analysis indicates that bear market momentum is starting to weaken, and the RSI indicator shows that Bitcoin is in an oversold condition.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram begins to flatten - this is an early signal of a potential reversal when buying volume starts to pick up.
05 Market Catalysts: Focus on These Key Events
In the coming weeks, several key events may determine the market direction:
The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting from October 28 to 29. Currently, the market expects a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October.
On October 21, the Federal Reserve will hold a Payments Innovation Conference, bringing together industry experts to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization. This marks a significant week for the tokenization of real-world assets.
The U.S. government will release the September Consumer Price Index report on October 24. This data may affect the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path, which in turn could impact the cryptocurrency market.
Geopolitical tensions continue, the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip is under test, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, all of which may affect market risk appetite.
06 Trading Strategy: Coping with Uncertain Markets
Professionals are adjusting their strategies to cope with market fluctuations on trading platforms like Gate.
Risk control is crucial. Each trade’s risk should be limited to 1-2% or less of the total account balance, and always use stop-loss orders.
For Bitcoin, the key support level is in the range of $106,000-$108,000, and the resistance level is in the $118,000-$120,000 area. If it can strongly break through this resistance, it may open the way to above $125,000.
Use a staggered accumulation strategy. You can buy in batches at different support levels, such as setting buy ladders at $3,700, $3,600, and $3,400, using smaller sizes at each lower ladder.
Consider using options strategies to generate income. Selling covered call options on part of your holdings, or selling put options at your desired buy price, can earn premiums in a sideways market.
Future Outlook
The market always bottoms out in fear and rises in hesitation. The BTC/Gold Oscillator indicator is now flashing a -1.8 signal, coinciding with the best turning points in Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold in history.
The battle between digital gold and traditional gold is far from over. As of October 20, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is still less than 10% of gold, but this also means there is immense growth potential.
For long-term investors, every major market fluctuation is a moment to reassess asset allocation and look for opportunities that have been mispriced.
