Gold Advocate CEO Peter Schiff recently made headlines on social media, claiming that if Strategy were part of the S&P 500, its projected 47.5% stock price drop in 2025 would make it the sixth-worst performer in the index. He argued that Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy has "completely destroyed shareholder value."
On the other hand, as the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, Strategy is moving closer to joining the S&P 500. Analyst Jeff Walton recently stated that the company has now met the key profitability threshold for inclusion in the S&P 500, potentially allowing investors to gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin.
Index Thresholds
As one of the world’s most influential stock market indices, changes to the S&P 500’s constituents always attract significant investor attention. In 2025, a key question is whether a publicly listed company with substantial Bitcoin holdings can make it into the index.
Strategy’s latest purchase came last week, acquiring 1,229 Bitcoins for $108.8 million at an average price of about $88,568 each. This brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 672,497 coins, with an average acquisition cost of roughly $74,997 per Bitcoin. Under new rules from the US Financial Accounting Standards Board, companies can now report digital assets at fair value, allowing Strategy to reflect the true value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analyst Jeff Walton noted that with recent Bitcoin price movements, Strategy is expected to report $14 billion in profit for Q2, with net profits of $11 billion over the past 12 months. This clears the "final hard requirement" for the company’s inclusion in the S&P 500.
Barriers to Inclusion
However, meeting the requirements doesn’t guarantee entry. The S&P 500 Index Committee has full discretionary power in its selection process, which is often described as "contentious and widely debated." The committee typically considers factors such as index balance, economic representation, and stability. Some analysts are divided on whether Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model could be a stumbling block.
Antti Petajisto, Head of Equities at Brooklyn Investment Group, pointed out, "The S&P excludes ETFs and closed-end funds from the index because it wants constituents to be operating entities, not investment funds." Strategy has allocated nearly all its assets to Bitcoin, setting it apart from traditional operating companies.
Critical Voices
Peter Schiff is among the most outspoken critics. In his recent comments, he questioned Strategy’s Bitcoin-centric approach. Schiff argued that a projected 47.5% drop in the company’s stock price in 2025 highlights the risk of tying a company’s fate too closely to Bitcoin’s price.
He also noted that Strategy reported unrealized gains of about $8.31 billion, translating to roughly 16% growth over five years, or a little over 3% annually. In Schiff’s view, this return is relatively low compared to traditional assets, suggesting that the company might have achieved better results by allocating funds elsewhere.
Market Impact
If Strategy succeeds in joining the S&P 500, it would become the second crypto-related company in the index after Coinbase. This would mean that all mainstream index funds tracking the S&P 500 would passively hold shares of Strategy. However, a report from JPMorgan analysts suggests that an S&P 500 rejection would be a "major setback" for crypto treasury companies. The analysis indicates that such a move could signal the peak of the corporate Bitcoin reserve trend, prompting other indices to reconsider the inclusion of companies with heavy crypto asset allocations.
MSCI has proposed a rule to exclude any company from its global investable market indices if digital assets make up more than 50% of total assets. The decision will be announced on January 15, 2026, with implementation planned for the February 2026 review.
Bitcoin Outlook
Market analysis shows Bitcoin fell about 20% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Some analysts believe that if Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle holds, 2026 could be challenging, with a possible dip toward $32,000 as early as January. From a valuation perspective, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has dropped to 1.2, closer to the typical bear market bottom (around zero), after peaking above 3 recently. This suggests valuation pressures have eased.
On the macroeconomic front, global money supply growth year-over-year has accelerated to a four-year high, exceeding 9%. Meanwhile, total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are approaching $60 billion, providing significant support for the market.
On the Gate platform, users can easily track Bitcoin price movements and related market data. As of now, Gate’s market data shows active Bitcoin trading, with price volatility reflecting shifting expectations about Strategy’s S&P 500 inclusion and other regulatory developments. With the US Securities and Exchange Commission removing crypto assets from its 2026 examination priorities, the regulatory environment is evolving, creating more favorable conditions for digital assets to integrate into mainstream finance. This shift aligns with the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2025 and ongoing reviews of other crypto ETFs, marking a significant step toward regulatory normalization for digital assets. For investors seeking Bitcoin exposure, there are now multiple options—from directly holding Bitcoin to indirect investment through ETFs or shares of companies like Strategy—each with its own risk-reward profile.
By early 2026, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are estimated to be worth over $50 billion, accounting for about 3.2% of total Bitcoin supply. Whether or not the company ultimately joins the S&P 500, its Bitcoin reserves are already significant enough to influence the broader market. More than 200 US-listed companies worldwide have now adopted digital asset treasury strategies, with total crypto holdings rising from $4 billion a year ago to $15 billion. Strategy’s stock is trading at $396 in pre-market, with a market cap of $113 billion—its fate now deeply intertwined with Bitcoin’s price. Even under the most optimistic forecasts, Bitcoin payment infrastructure is expected to further mature in 2026, but price volatility remains a concern. Investors must carefully weigh the nuanced relationship between traditional financial indices and crypto assets in this complex environment.
