On January 26 local time, MicroStrategy announced another purchase of Bitcoin worth $264 million, at an average price of $90,061 per BTC. This brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of $76,037 per coin.
However, behind this seemingly unwavering confidence in Bitcoin, the data reveals troubling structural shifts. Nearly all of the funds for this latest purchase came from newly issued shares rather than corporate profits. At the same time, the company’s key valuation metric, mNAV, has dropped to 0.94x, indicating that its stock is trading below the net value of its Bitcoin reserves.
Purchase Details and Funding Structure
MicroStrategy completed its latest Bitcoin purchase between January 20 and 25, marking its fourth acquisition this month. Unlike earlier purchases funded through corporate profits or cash reserves, this time the funding structure has fundamentally changed.
The company raised $257 million by selling 1,569,770 shares of common stock and issued 70,201 shares of STRC preferred stock for an additional $7 million. The total financing of approximately $264 million almost entirely covered the cost of the Bitcoin purchase. This financing model reflects MicroStrategy’s current predicament—since Bitcoin prices reached around $125,000 in Q4 2025, market sentiment has shifted. The company’s previously successful "stock price rises—issue shares—buy Bitcoin—stock price rises again" positive feedback loop is now breaking down.
mNAV Falls Below Critical Threshold
Amid recent Bitcoin price volatility and growing skepticism about MicroStrategy’s model, the company’s key valuation metric, mNAV (market-to-net asset value multiple), has entered a danger zone.
As of January 26, 2026, MicroStrategy’s diluted mNAV stands at about 0.94x, meaning its shares trade at a 6% discount to the net value of its Bitcoin reserves. More importantly, from January 5 to January 26, the company’s diluted share count increased by 5.36%, while its Bitcoin holdings rose by only 5.77%. This nearly parallel growth shows that new share issuance is no longer significantly increasing shareholders’ exposure to Bitcoin. The early strategy of buying Bitcoin by issuing shares at a high premium has lost much of its effectiveness.
From Index Core to the Margins
A more severe structural challenge for MicroStrategy comes from its exclusion by the traditional financial system. The company now faces the risk of being removed from major MSCI equity indices.
According to a JPMorgan report, if MicroStrategy is excluded from MSCI indices, it could trigger capital outflows of about $2.8 billion; if other index providers follow suit, outflows could reach $8.8 billion. This would represent nearly 15% of the company’s current market cap and could be devastating for its stock price.
On January 15, 2026, MSCI officially removed MicroStrategy from all major indices. This is more than a technical adjustment—it’s a fundamental market rejection of MicroStrategy’s business model. When a company’s crypto assets exceed 50% of total assets, index providers now classify it as a crypto fund rather than a traditional enterprise. MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings currently account for a staggering 77% of its total assets.
Structural Risks in the Business Model
MicroStrategy’s business model now faces unprecedented structural risks. Over the past 19 months, the company has raised about $18.56 billion through common stock offerings, issuing roughly 226.6 million shares. The latest purchase continues this trend, further diluting existing shareholders’ equity amid weak market conditions.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s reliance on preferred stock is growing. These preferred shares come with fixed dividend requirements and have higher repayment priority than common stock. While preferred stock helps maintain Bitcoin purchasing power during periods of stock weakness, it also increases long-term obligations and adds complexity to the balance sheet. Notably, MicroStrategy has shifted from a "hold forever" strategy to one where it is "willing to sell under certain circumstances." The company stated that if its mNAV falls below 1 and it needs to sell Bitcoin to meet creditor obligations, it will consider doing so.
Potential Impact on the Bitcoin Market
As the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy’s strategy has a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. Historical data shows the company’s Bitcoin holdings represent a substantial share of total circulating supply, and any major moves could trigger market volatility.
According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, Bitcoin’s price was $88,641.9, with a market capitalization of $1.76 trillion and a market dominance of 56.49%. The price rose 0.9% in the past 24 hours but fell 4.85% over the past seven days. Market sentiment is currently rated as neutral.
Gate data projects Bitcoin’s average price in 2026 to be $88,432.3, with fluctuations between a low of $84,010.68 and a high of $91,969.59. By 2031, the price could reach $211,213, representing a potential return of +62.00% compared to today.
Dependence on Capital Markets and the Road Ahead
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy has become entirely dependent on capital markets. The company continues to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases by issuing shares, but when the stock trades below the value of its Bitcoin reserves, such issuance actually dilutes shareholder value rather than increases it.
Market data shows MicroStrategy’s stock premium has dropped from a peak of 2.5x to near net asset value. Once seen by investors as a "Bitcoin leverage tool," MicroStrategy is now viewed as merely a Bitcoin proxy. With the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, investors now have more direct and cost-effective ways to gain Bitcoin exposure, without relying on complex intermediaries like MicroStrategy. This further erodes the rationale for MicroStrategy’s business model.
On January 15, MSCI officially removed MicroStrategy from all major indices, and passive index-tracking funds are withdrawing from the company. Since its July 2024 high, MicroStrategy’s share price has plummeted 66%, with its key mNAV indicator hovering around 1.02—close to the critical threshold. As every new dollar flows into Bitcoin ETFs instead, MicroStrategy is becoming a "closed-end Bitcoin fund." Founder Michael Saylor once tamed the crypto market’s polar bear, but now Wall Street’s algorithms are rewriting the rules with cold precision.
