On the evening of February 13 (UTC+8), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a key inflation report. The data showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, slightly below the market expectation of 2.5%. Core CPI increased 2.5% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since 2021.
Following the release of this favorable data for rate cut expectations, traders quickly adjusted their positions. As of February 14, the market anticipates a total rate cut of about 63 basis points by year-end, positioning the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts squarely between two and three times for the year. In terms of timing, traders have fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut before the July meeting, with a high probability of action in June.
Goldman Sachs’ Firm Stance: First Rate Cut in June, Four Cuts in Total for the Year
Amid a fog of data, Goldman Sachs’ outlook stands out. Jonny Fine, Global Head of Investment Grade Credit at Goldman Sachs, stated in mid-February that he expects the Fed to cut rates four times this year, with the first cut coming in June and subsequent cuts phased out through the end of 2026.
Fine attributes his dovish stance to changes in Fed leadership. He believes that with Kevin Warsh assuming the role of Fed Chair, the central bank will take a more forward-looking approach to monetary policy decisions. Fine even predicts that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury could drop to 3.5% later this year. This view is echoed by hedge fund titan and Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn, who believes that under Warsh’s leadership, the Fed’s rate cuts could far exceed current market expectations.
JPMorgan’s Contrarian Move: The Logic Behind Shorting 2-Year US Treasuries
In stark contrast to Goldman Sachs’ optimism, JPMorgan strategists recommended in a February 12 report that investors tactically short 2-year US Treasuries.
Led by Jay Barry, the strategist team outlined two core reasons:
Strong US Economic Fundamentals: The report stated, "The US economic fundamentals are robust—even if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, it will be difficult for him to sway the Federal Open Market Committee to his will." This suggests that regardless of who leads the Fed, strong economic data will limit the scope for aggressive rate cuts.
Sticky Core Inflation Exceeds Expectations: JPMorgan forecasts that US core CPI for January will rise 0.39% month-over-month, higher than Bloomberg Economics’ estimate of 0.31%. They believe that early-year price pressures will make it difficult for short-term yields to fall sharply from current levels, making shorting short-term bonds a reasonable choice.
| Institution View | Core Forecast | Key Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | First rate cut in June, four cuts in total for the year | Fed leadership change (Warsh’s appointment) will bring a forward-looking policy stance |
| JPMorgan | Tactical short on 2-year US Treasuries | Strong US economic fundamentals, sticky core inflation exceeding expectations |
Crypto Market Linkage: How Do Macro Liquidity Expectations Impact Gate-Related Assets?
As macro uncertainty intensifies, the correlation between crypto markets and traditional financial assets continues to strengthen. As of February 14, Gate’s latest market data shows that optimistic CPI figures have positively impacted crypto asset prices. Bitcoin (BTC) surged more than 4%, approaching the $69,000 mark again, while Ethereum (ETH) rose over 6%.
For Gate’s native token, GT, macro liquidity expectations are equally crucial. As of February 14, the GT price on Gate has shown resilience. According to Gate’s trading data, GT (Gatechain Token) is currently fluctuating around $7.
If Goldman Sachs’ forecast proves accurate—meaning the Fed begins rate cuts in June and adopts a broadly accommodative stance throughout the year—this would inject more dollar liquidity into the market. Typically, this benefits risk assets like Bitcoin and could also drive platform token GT higher.
However, if JPMorgan’s assessment holds—where the economy remains resilient, rates stay elevated (making shorting Treasuries profitable)—risk assets may face short-term pressure. On the other hand, a high-rate environment could prompt capital to seek higher-yield assets. Opportunities such as staking through decentralized finance (DeFi) or participating in Launchpad events might actually increase real demand for assets like GT.
Conclusion
The divergence between Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan essentially reflects a tug-of-war between "policy shift expectations" and "economic resilience." For users tracking market dynamics on Gate, this split signals opportunities amid volatility.
Judging by Gate’s market reaction on February 14, the crypto market clearly leans toward Goldman Sachs’ "liquidity easing narrative." However, investors should closely monitor March’s inflation data and the actual policy direction following Warsh’s appointment. Whether the outcome is a "soft landing" or "no landing," leveraging spot, derivatives, and wealth management tools on Gate’s all-in-one trading platform is key to finding certainty amid macro shifts.
