As we move into late February 2026, the global financial markets once again find themselves at a crossroads of major macroeconomic shifts. The dramatic reversal of US tariff policy, the ongoing spillover of geopolitical risks from the Middle East, and the extremely bullish outlook for traditional safe-haven asset gold have together woven a complex web of cause and effect. As a representative of high-risk assets, the crypto market is keenly attuned to every macro pulse.
The Tariff "Rashomon": From Overreach Shutdown to a New Global Tax
Political maneuvering in Washington, D.C. is sending shockwaves through global markets. On February 20, the US Supreme Court issued a historic ruling, declaring that the large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded the president’s legal authority and constituted an "overreach." As a result, US Customs and Border Protection confirmed it would halt the collection of these unlawful tariffs under that framework starting February 24.
However, the tariff saga did not end there. The Supreme Court’s decision only restricted specific legal grounds and did not strip the president of other taxation powers. The Trump administration quickly pivoted, announcing the imposition of new, large-scale import tariffs on goods from all countries and regions under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, raising the tariff rate from 10% to 15% in just one day.
This "fight while negotiating" approach, rife with uncertainty, has directly heightened risk-off sentiment in the markets. As of the early Asian session on February 24, Gate market data showed that Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the $63,000 mark, hitting a low of $63,000 and dropping more than 3% in 24 hours. Although it later rebounded slightly to around $65,000, overall market fragility was evident. Ethereum (ETH) also came under pressure, hovering below $1,900.
UBS Proclaims "Extreme Scarcity": The $6,200 Gold Forecast
In stark contrast to the turbulence in the crypto markets, gold—traditionally a safe-haven asset—has been shining brightly. Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide (especially expectations of further instability in the Middle East) and a dovish cycle from the Federal Reserve, UBS has released a striking forecast.
In its latest report, UBS notes that robust central bank purchases and rising investment demand have pushed global gold demand past 5,000 metric tons in 2025—a historic high. On the supply side, by 2028, 80 gold mines worldwide are expected to exhaust their output, further intensifying structural scarcity. UBS has therefore sharply raised its long-term gold price target to $6,200 per ounce, emphasizing that gold’s role as a hedge is irreplaceable amid persistent geopolitical risks.
According to Gate platform data, gold (XAU/USDT) prices have already reflected this outlook, with the latest quote at $5,154.4 per ounce, maintaining strong momentum.
Geopolitics and Macro: A Double Bind for the Crypto Market?
The boundaries between traditional finance and the crypto market are blurring, with geopolitical risks transmitted to crypto through multiple channels:
- Liquidity Drain: When tariff wars escalate or sudden Middle East events trigger panic, institutional investors often pull funds first from the most volatile assets to cover margin calls or hold cash. As noted by the co-founder of Orbit Markets, macro uncertainty is putting pressure on the crypto market, making it easy for capital to flow out of crypto assets.
- Dollar and Interest Rate Linkage: In the short term, tariff policies may push up inflation and affect the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. However, UBS believes that rate-cut expectations and actual declines in real rates are long-term bullish for gold—a logic that also applies to Bitcoin, which some investors see as "digital gold." For now, though, Bitcoin remains more correlated with risk assets like the Nasdaq, constrained by tightening concerns.
- Diversion of Safe-Haven Demand: UBS’s extremely bullish stance on gold may temporarily divert some capital seeking safety. In the long run, however, if sovereign fiat currency systems are eroded by trade wars and debt issues, decentralized crypto assets (such as BTC) will gain a genuine narrative opportunity.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels to Watch
Market sentiment is currently highly sensitive. According to MyToken data, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at just 8, signaling "extreme fear."
From a technical perspective, $65,000 is a key support level for Bitcoin. If it breaks convincingly, the $60,000 mark will become the main battleground between bulls and bears. On the upside, prices need to reclaim and hold above $70,000 to reverse the current downtrend.
On the Gate trading platform, users can not only track real-time price movements but also monitor derivative data such as the BTC Volatility Index (BVIX), which is currently at 55.42, reflecting market expectations for future volatility.
Gate’s Multi-Faceted Perspective: Bridging Traditional and Crypto Assets
In such a complex macro environment, the volatility of a single asset class can no longer be viewed in isolation. As a one-stop digital asset platform, Gate offers trading in major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, as well as CFD products for traditional financial assets such as gold, crude oil, and US stock indices. This enables investors to freely switch between crypto and traditional safe-haven assets on the Gate platform, achieving true diversification to navigate the dual shocks of new tariff policies and geopolitical risks.
Conclusion
Trump’s Tariff 2.0 and UBS’s supercycle gold forecast together outline the current macro landscape: uncertainty is the only certainty. For the crypto market, it remains a small boat in a macro storm in the short term, facing selling pressure from tightening liquidity and rising risk aversion. The $63,000 BTC price shown on Gate reflects this anxiety. However, in the long run, if sovereign credit systems continue to erode due to trade friction, the value of crypto assets as alternative stores of value will ultimately be reassessed. In this macro maze, staying vigilant, closely following real-time data on the Gate platform, and maintaining diversified asset allocations are the keys to weathering both bull and bear markets.
