Shenchaio TechFlow News: On January 9, US Treasury bonds fell as traders nearly erased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates later this month. This came after the December unemployment rate decline exceeded expectations, offsetting weak overall employment growth. Following Friday’s report release, US government bond prices dropped, pushing yields across all maturities higher by up to 3 basis points. Bond traders maintained a forecast of two total rate cuts throughout 2026, with the first cut expected to occur mid-year.
John Briggs, head of US rates strategy at Natixis North America, stated: “For us, the Federal Reserve focuses more on the unemployment rate rather than noise in overall data. Therefore, in my view, this is slightly negative for US rates.” Previously, due to a six-week government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, labor reports for September, October, and November were delayed in release. This employment data provided the first “clean” reading that could reflect macroeconomic employment trends.
Whether the Federal Reserve will implement further rate cuts is believed to depend on labor market performance in coming months. Previously, to address weakness in the labor market, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for short-term lending rates in three consecutive meetings. However, some officials remain concerned about inflation remaining above target, which is seen as constraining the pace of further easing. (Jinshi)
分析：失業率意外下降重挫降息預期、債券交易員轉看年中行動
Shenchaio TechFlow News: On January 9, US Treasury bonds fell as traders nearly erased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates later this month. This came after the December unemployment rate decline exceeded expectations, offsetting weak overall employment growth. Following Friday’s report release, US government bond prices dropped, pushing yields across all maturities higher by up to 3 basis points. Bond traders maintained a forecast of two total rate cuts throughout 2026, with the first cut expected to occur mid-year.
John Briggs, head of US rates strategy at Natixis North America, stated: “For us, the Federal Reserve focuses more on the unemployment rate rather than noise in overall data. Therefore, in my view, this is slightly negative for US rates.” Previously, due to a six-week government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, labor reports for September, October, and November were delayed in release. This employment data provided the first “clean” reading that could reflect macroeconomic employment trends.
Whether the Federal Reserve will implement further rate cuts is believed to depend on labor market performance in coming months. Previously, to address weakness in the labor market, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for short-term lending rates in three consecutive meetings. However, some officials remain concerned about inflation remaining above target, which is seen as constraining the pace of further easing. (Jinshi)