Bitcoin's Bullish Signals: MVRV Z-Score Rebound, Spent Coins Exhaustion, and Falling Wedge Breakout in 2025

As of October 22, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $108,200, showing signs of resilience after a volatile week marked by a $19 billion liquidation cascade triggered by U.S.-China trade tariffs. The cryptocurrency’s price has fluctuated between $105,000 and $111,500, with RSI at 44 indicating neutral momentum and MACD hinting at a potential bullish crossover. Institutional sentiment remains positive, with 67% of surveyed investors optimistic per Coinbase’s report, viewing the market as a “late-stage bull.” In decentralized finance (DeFi), where TVL exceeds $150 billion, these indicators suggest a potential reversal, but failing to hold $108,200 could accelerate downside risks.

MVRV Z-Score Rebound: From 1.90 to 1.96 Higher Low

The MVRV Z-Score, a key on-chain metric measuring BTC’s valuation relative to realized value, has rebounded from 1.90 to 1.96, forming a higher low pattern that historically preceded a 14% rally last month. This score, at 2.46 currently per MacroMicro, signals undervaluation below the historical mean of 3.0, with the Z-score below 7 indicating room for upside before overbought territory. The rebound reflects selling exhaustion, as market value lags realized value, attracting value investors amid ETF inflows of $4.77 billion last week.

Spent Coins Data: 99.6% Long-Term, 98.9% Short-Term Sales Drop

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) data reveals long-term holder sales down 99.6% and short-term sales down 98.9%, signaling exhaustion and reduced supply pressure. This aligns with a 47% drop in revived supply from dormant wallets, per Glassnode, as coins age into long-term status without movement. The average age of spent coins at 100 days confirms HODLing dominance, with only 44% of realized cap from short-term holders, the highest ever. This scarcity bolsters $108,200 support, potentially sparking $115,000-$120,000 if volume surges.

Falling Wedge Pattern: $108,200 Breakout to $116,000

BTC’s chart forms a falling wedge near $108,200, a bullish reversal pattern after 2023’s megaphone and 2024’s bull flag breakouts. A confirmed close above $111,500 could target $116,000, with historical 75-90% gains from similar setups. Bollinger Bands narrow (upper $115,000, lower $105,000), signaling impending volatility, while 50-day MA at $108,918 and 200-day at $107,500 reinforce support. Whales’ repetition of this pattern, per Crypto Rover, adds confluence.

2025 Outlook: $130K-$200K Consensus

Analysts forecast BTC at $130K-$200K by year-end. Changelly sees $123,849 in October; CoinDCX $131,500. VanEck targets $180,000-$200,000 on ETF momentum. Bull catalysts: Rate cuts and $50B ETF inflows; bear risks: Tariffs testing $100K.

In summary, MVRV rebound, spent coin exhaustion, and falling wedge signal BTC’s bullish reversal potential, with $108,200 as the pivotal support for 2025’s DeFi surge.