Bitcoin News: BTC plunges to $86,000, 14-year holding whale liquidates $1.3 billion

Bitcoin prices plummeted sharply to $86,000 on November 21, reaching a new low since April and attracting widespread market attention. On-chain data shows that early whale Owen Gunden, who has held coins for 14 years, has sold a total of 11,000 BTC over the past two months, valued at approximately $1.3 billion. A recent transfer of $230 million has flowed into a major centralized exchange (CEX).

This sell-off coincides with Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering oversold territory for the first time in nine months, and the MVRV ratio dropping to a three-year low of -14%. Market liquidations in the past 24 hours have exceeded $410 million in long positions, with total cryptocurrency market liquidations approaching $900 million.

Whale Activity and Market Impact

Blockchain analytics platform Arkham detected that Bitcoin early participant Owen Gunden has been significantly reducing his holdings since October, selling a total of 11,000 BTC worth about $1.3 billion at current prices. This activity aligns closely with Bitcoin’s retreat from highs of $107,000, raising concerns about shaken confidence among long-term holders. Notably, the recent $230 million transfer to a major CEX suggests potential further sales.

Contrasting this, other large investors have been accumulating during the current downturn. On-chain analyst CW pointed out significant whale buy walls near $85,000, which could serve as initial support. This divergence highlights differing market views—some long-term holders are taking profits, while others see the decline as an accumulation opportunity. Historically, large-scale sell-offs by early whales often mark important turning points, potentially signaling a top or a shift in market dominance.

Whale behavior heavily influences market sentiment. When a “original miner” who has held for 14 years begins to sell, it can raise questions about the “final holder” theory. These early participants typically bought at low costs and can profit even after substantial declines; their decisions are often driven by long-term perspectives rather than short-term price movements. The on-chain data shows that the 11,000 BTC sold accounts for most of the address’s holdings—an almost complete exit. Such resolute action warrants in-depth market interpretation.

Key Market Data and On-Chain Signals for Bitcoin

Price and Liquidations

Current Price: $86,000

Key Support: $85,204

24-Hour Long Liquidations: $410 million

Total Market Liquidations: $900 million

Largest Single Liquidation: $30 million at an exchange

Technical Indicators

RSI: First oversold in nine months

MVRV Ratio: -14% (three-year low)

Opportunity Zone: -8% to -18%

Whale Activity

Owen Gunden’s Selloff: 11,000 BTC

Total Value: $1.3 billion

Most Recent Transfer: $230 million

Holding Duration: 14 years

Technical Signals Indicating Oversold Conditions

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, a first in nine months, suggesting potential short-term rebound opportunities. Historical data shows that the last time similar conditions occurred was in February 2025, when Bitcoin further declined about 10% before initiating a multi-month recovery. If history repeats, Bitcoin might need to drop to around $77,164 to attract enough buy support. This level is still some distance from the 200-day moving average at $55,000, as mentioned by analyst Wolf Of All Streets, but the support at $85,000 is crucial in the short term.

The MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value) ratio has fallen to -14%, marking a three-year low. This metric assesses Bitcoin’s value relative to its historical cost basis. When MVRV enters the -8% to -18% “opportunity zone,” it typically indicates undervaluation and accumulation phases in history. At current levels, most holders are at a loss, which can induce weak hands to sell and long-term investors to gradually accumulate, laying the groundwork for a future rally.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is holding the key support at $85,204. Losing this level could lead to further declines towards $82,503 or even psychological support at $80,000. This pattern reflects market fragility after a sharp decline, requiring substantial buy-in to reverse. Conversely, a rebound above resistance at $86,822 could retest $89,800 or even $95,000, relieving recent bearish pressure and setting a more solid foundation for year-end.

Market Liquidations and Leverage Reset

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin experienced massive long liquidations totaling $410 million, with nearly $900 million across all cryptocurrencies. One liquidation order exceeded $30 million at an exchange. Such rapid deleverage often occurs during swift declines, as over-leveraged positions are forcibly closed, further pushing prices down. Bitcoin accounts for about 45% of total liquidation volume, indicating that the move was primarily driven by Bitcoin, with other altcoins following.

Leverage reset is an essential part of healthy market corrections. During prolonged uptrends, investors tend to increase leverage to amplify gains, which builds systemic risk. The recent liquidations have cleared excessive long positions, reducing overall market leverage and creating a more sustainable environment. Derivatives data show funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual contracts have decreased significantly from high levels, and open interest has declined—positive signs of cooling market sentiment.

From a trader psychology angle, large liquidation events often mark extreme sentiment. Forced liquidations of highly leveraged positions suggest that the most optimistic buyers have been forced out, possibly approaching a short-term bottom. Historical patterns show that within 1-3 weeks after such events, Bitcoin’s average return tends to be positive, aligning with the adage that panic selling creates buying opportunities. However, caution is warranted as low liquidity during deleveraging can amplify volatility and overshoot.

Historical Patterns and Cycle Positioning

Analysis of Bitcoin’s historical data reveals that current technical configurations often appear near the end of mid-term corrections. RSI entering oversold zones combined with MVRV at three-year lows has occurred six times previously, with five instances leading to positive returns within three months, averaging a 42% gain. The only exception was during the 2018 bear market, which was influenced by macro factors quite different from today’s environment, where the Fed was tightening rather than holding a pause.

From a cycle perspective, Bitcoin remains in the retracement phase from its all-time high. The current correction exceeds 20%, fitting technical definitions of a “correction.” Notably, Bitcoin’s halving cycles typically see tops 12-18 months after halving events; the last halving occurred about 10 months ago, so the market is still within a historically strong phase. Despite short-term pressures, this is more likely a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.

Institutional participation may alter traditional cycle patterns. Unlike early cycles driven mainly by retail, today’s market includes more long-term institutional holders with broader investment horizons and lower sensitivity to short-term fluctuations. On-chain data shows that despite price declines, institutional holdings remain stable or have slightly increased, suggesting structural shifts that may cause the current cycle to diverge from historical patterns.

Future Price Scenarios for Bitcoin

Based on current technical and fundamental factors, Bitcoin’s future may unfold in three main scenarios. First, a “V-shaped recovery” where Bitcoin finds strong support near $85,000 and quickly rebounds above $95,000—requiring rapid institutional buy-in and macroeconomic improvements. Second, a “range-bound consolidation,” where Bitcoin trades between $80,000 and $90,000, digesting selling pressure over time to build a healthier base. Third, a “further decline” scenario, where support at $85,000 fails, potentially pushing down to $77,000 or lower. This could occur if whales continue to sell, macro risks intensify, or negative events occur in crypto.

Options market data show heavy put options below $80,000, indicating some market participants are preparing for deeper corrections. Long-term fundamentals remain solid: hash rate continues to reach new highs, the Lightning Network’s capacity expands, and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, though slowing, persist, reflecting ongoing institutional interest. These factors suggest that the current dip may be viewed in hindsight as a healthy correction within a broader bull trend rather than a trend reversal.

The recent drop to $86,000 and the massive $1.3 billion whale liquidation coincide with the first oversold signal in nine months, creating a complex emotional environment. Historical patterns indicate that such technical conditions often precede significant reversals, while diverging whale behaviors highlight differing market valuation perspectives. Currently, as leverage is reset and cycle positioning evolves, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from exuberance to rational valuation, laying a foundation for healthier future growth.

FAQ

What are the main reasons behind Bitcoin dropping to $86,000?

The decline is driven by the whale’s continuous sale of 11,000 BTC worth $1.3 billion, excessive leverage leading to chain reactions of liquidations, and technical breakdowns triggering automated sell orders among other factors.

What does RSI being oversold imply for Bitcoin’s price?

It indicates a potential short-term rebound, but historical data shows that after oversold signals, Bitcoin can still decline about 10% further before bottoming out. Monitoring key support at $85,000 is crucial.

Why is the MVRV ratio at -14% important?

It reflects that Bitcoin’s market value is significantly below realized value, suggesting undervaluation. Historically, the -8% to -18% “opportunity zone” corresponds with accumulation phases and subsequent rallies.

Does the whale’s $1.3 billion selloff mean bearish sentiment?

Not necessarily. It could be personal financial planning, and other whales are accumulating near $85,000. This divergence reveals differing outlooks and time horizons among market participants.

Where are Bitcoin’s key support and resistance levels?

Support is at $85,204, with potential further downside to $82,503 or even $77,164 if broken. Resistance levels are at $86,822, $89,800, and $95,000; surpassing these could alleviate short-term bearish pressures.