What should be the next step after Bitcoin's rebound to $85,000?

Bitcoin rebounded from $85,000 over the weekend and has maintained range-bound fluctuations. The current technical analysis shows a clear liquidity layering: resistance is concentrated at $87,700-$89,600 and $92,000-$93,400 (core trigger point at $92,800), while support levels are at $85,700-$85,000, $84,000-$83,500, and $82,500-$81,500, with key support level near $79,000. Market sentiment is cautious, and capital flow has become a core variable. BlackRock's IBIT fund recorded a single-day outflow of $523 million on November 19, setting a record since its establishment, while Bitcoin hit a several-month low during the same period. CoinShares data shows that in mid-November, the ETP market experienced a weekly outflow of $2 billion, with Bitcoin products accounting for $1.38 billion, directly weakening the passive buying power that had absorbed the previous decline. The derivatives market shows a clear defensive posture: the open interest of the $85,000 put options expiring in December is large, continuously suppressing prices; Deribit data indicates a bias towards put options, with the implied volatility term structure sloping upwards, reflecting that the demand for protective options is higher than for call options. In the futures market, the open interest is higher than the spot level, and the funding rate fluctuates around zero. The liquidation heatmap shows dense trigger points above $92,000-$93,000 and below $82,000-$79,000. If the funding rate turns negative, liquidity pressure may be faced around $85,000. The “data fog” at the macro level exacerbates market uncertainty. The U.S. government shutdown has led to the cancellation of the October CPI report, and the November CPI and employment data have been delayed, leaving a lack of key reference signals before the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting. The current Chicago Fed Index shows that financial conditions are tighter than in early autumn, suppressing the rise of risk assets, while the New York Fed's mid-term balance sheet expansion plan is unlikely to provide short-term impetus. Additionally, miner fees have decreased by over 15% month-on-month, which may increase selling pressure during the Rebound, aligning with the selling demand in the range of $92,000 to $93,400; the total market cap of stablecoins hovers around $300 billion, still with a large amount of idle funds available for position adjustments. In the short term, the market is likely to present three directions: first, a 40% probability of rebounding to the range of $92,800 to $93,400, requiring the funding rate to be above zero and ETF net inflows to recover for 2-3 days, triggering short covering; second, a 35% probability of maintaining oscillation in the range of $85,000 to $90,000, with the core reasons being data vacuum and differentiated ETF fund flows; third, a 25% probability of dipping to $79,000, with triggering conditions being ETF outflows, tightening financial conditions, and negative rates. Intra-day risk management should focus on three major signals: improvement in funding conditions combined with continuous net inflows into ETFs can open up the upward path to $92,800; a negative turn in funds and continuous outflows from ETFs may drag the price to test support at $84,000 and below; at the same time, closely monitor the Chicago Fed NFCI index, dollar trends, and miner fee rebounds to anticipate changes in supply and demand at key price levels. The current microstructure dominates the market, lacking a clear long-term trend, and short-term fluctuations will revolve around liquidity nodes.