New Year's Day is approaching, and the crypto market continues to consolidate. What potential "catalysts" could exist in the market in 2026?

Article by: Glendon, Techub News

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $90,000 level yesterday, but today it fell below $87,000 again, with a intraday decline of 3.76%. Meanwhile, the crypto market has once again experienced a broad decline. Data from SoSoValue shows that no major sector was spared, with 24-hour declines generally exceeding 3%, including SocialFi, Layer2, AI, RWA, and NFT sectors, all suffering heavy losses, each dropping over 5%.

In terms of institutional investment, CoinShares’ latest data indicates that last week, digital asset investment products saw a net outflow of approximately $446 million, bringing the total outflow since October 10 to $3.2 billion; additionally, last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $782 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $102 million, both continuing a three-week trend of net capital outflows, clearly indicating that institutional sentiment remains unrestored.

However, the market seems to have become accustomed to this, as since the “10.11” flash crash, the crypto market has been in a nearly three-month downtrend. Bitcoin’s price has been oscillating downward from high levels, but every rebound appears weak and unconvincing.

After experiencing multiple shocks from long-term holder sell-offs, ETF capital outflows, and the decline of the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT), the crypto market is also considered to have entered a “bear market” cycle. However, there are signs of potential change. Notably, the downward trend in the crypto market eased somewhat in December. Compared to November’s sharp decline (Bitcoin dropping from around $110,000 at the start of the month to $80,000 at its lowest), Bitcoin has been oscillating within the range of approximately $84,000 to $95,000 this month. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows in November amounted to $3.5 billion, and in December, about $1.1 billion, with significantly reduced volatility and capital outflows. Considering year-end risk reduction strategies, these data may suggest a marginal easing of selling pressure, and the market is brewing some positive changes.

Regarding recent Bitcoin volatility, Presto Research analyst Rick Maeda states that Bitcoin’s return above $90,000 yesterday was mainly driven by technical factors rather than any new catalysts. The $90,000 level was a clear resistance point; once Bitcoin stabilized above it, it likely triggered short covering and momentum-driven buying. Kronos Research’s Chief Information Officer Vincent Liu also noted that after a period of consolidation, Bitcoin rebounded at technical support levels, with key price points turning into support.

It appears that the current market decline is more akin to a “structural reset” rather than a simple “bear market.” As DeFi leverage unwinds, the market is gradually clearing risks. The oscillation range in December may also indicate a transitional phase, awaiting new catalysts. With the new year approaching, in this moment full of hope and uncertainty, what trends might the crypto market see in 2026? What potential positive factors exist?

What are the potential positives for the crypto market in 2026?

One noteworthy phenomenon is that despite the ongoing decline of DAT over the past months, the Bitcoin holdings of publicly listed companies (excluding mining firms) worldwide showed a significant increase in December. Data from SoSoValue indicates that as of December 29, U.S. listed companies spent approximately $2.064 billion to acquire about 22,600 BTC in December. This accumulation temporarily exceeded the total Bitcoin purchased by listed companies from September to November, during which they spent about $1.869 billion to acquire roughly 20,000 BTC.

Although this data cannot compare to the peak of the DAT boom, it may signal that the DAT market is gearing up. Notably, leading DAT companies are increasing their deployment. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) spent over $2 billion in cash reserves this month, accumulating more than 22,500 BTC. As of December 28, Strategy held about 675,000 BTC, with a total investment of approximately $50.44 billion.

Additionally, the Ethereum DAT market is also showing a slow but steady growth trend. According to Strategic ETH Reserve data, as of the time of writing, Ethereum reserves totaled about 6.8127 million ETH, an increase of approximately 7% from 6.3647 million ETH in November.

Among these, BitMine, an Ethereum treasury company, has invested at a scale comparable to Strategy. Currently, it holds about 4.1105 million ETH, accounting for roughly 60% of the total Ethereum reserves. Moreover, BitMine’s deployment is not limited to Ethereum treasury holdings; it is also targeting Ethereum native staking. As of December 28, BitMine has staked 408,627 ETH, worth about $1.2 billion. Additionally, BitMine is developing a dedicated infrastructure for Ethereum native staking, called MAVAN, a U.S.-based validator network, which is planned to go live in Q1 2026.

This move will undoubtedly bring new vitality and opportunities to the Ethereum ecosystem. Driven by upgrades like Ethereum’s Pectra and active institutions like BitMine, the demand for Ethereum staking is surging. The “entry queue” for Ethereum validators has surged to more than twice the size of the “exit queue” for the first time in six months.

According to the latest Ethereum Validator Queue data, about 788,300 ETH are waiting to enter the Ethereum validator network, with an expected wait time of nearly 14 days, while the exit queue contains only about 310,000 ETH. As of the time of writing, total Ethereum staked is approximately 35.5 million ETH, representing 29.29% of the total supply, with over 980,000 active validators. Previously, the exit queue peaked at 2.67 million ETH on September 13. This indicator is an important signal of market fundamentals; it reflects renewed confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem and indicates that the security of the Ethereum network is continuously strengthening, entering a phase of capital accumulation and increased liquidity.

Besides leading DAT companies, other institutions such as Trump Media (under Trump), Spanish-listed Vanadi Coffee, and Trend Research (founded by Jack Yi of Liquid Capital) have also actively increased their Bitcoin or Ethereum holdings this month, indicating that institutional activity is rising compared to previous months.

Furthermore, the tokenization sector closely related to institutional activity is also quietly emerging. A report from Cantor Fitzgerald shows that the total value of on-chain real-world asset (RWA) tokenization reached an astonishing threefold increase in 2025, hitting $18.5 billion, and is expected to surpass $50 billion in 2026. Although the RWA market is still in its early stages, its applications have expanded across multiple fields. Data aggregator RWA.xyz reports that the tokenized commodities market size is about $400 million, growing 11% in the past month, including tokenized products like Tether Gold (XAUt) and Paxos Gold (PAXG).

The most recent focus is on tokenized stocks, which have surged to a record high market cap of $1.2 billion. Token Terminal considers tokenized stocks as “the stablecoins of 2020,” recognizing their huge growth potential. Many industry insiders compare this trend to the DeFi boom of early 2020, predicting that in the future, global stocks will be tokenized on a large scale to benefit from faster settlement, 24/7 trading, and fractional ownership.

The tokenized fund sector is also developing rapidly. BlackRock’s first tokenized money market fund, BUIDL, has paid out over $100 million, indicating that tokenized securities have moved beyond pilot and proof-of-concept stages into practical application. In mid-December, Wall Street giant JPMorgan launched its first Ethereum-based tokenized money market fund with an initial capital of $100 million, further confirming strong institutional demand for tokenized assets. 2026 may thus mark a key turning point for tokenized assets moving from concept validation to large-scale application.

Another important sector is prediction markets. Over the past few months, almost all areas of the crypto market have experienced capital outflows, but prediction markets have emerged as a rising star, attracting significant capital against the trend. Notably, Polymarket and Kalshi received strategic investments of $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and a $1 billion Series E funding led by Paradigm, respectively, both with valuations exceeding $10 billion.

Currently, competition in this sector is intense. Polymarket has been approved to re-enter the U.S. market, Kalshi is bringing thousands of prediction markets on-chain via Solana, and the new BNB ecosystem prediction platform Opinion has surpassed $10 billion in nominal trading volume within just 55 days of launch. These cases all indicate that prediction markets are on the verge of explosive growth, with huge future potential, and may become another growth driver for the crypto market.

Conclusion

Overall, the current crypto market harbors many positive factors. Besides the internal market factors mentioned earlier, there are macro policies expected to be submitted for Senate review in January, such as the “Clarity Act” (for crypto regulation), and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. However, the key question is when these factors will translate into real catalysts for market growth.

In general, the long-term bullish outlook remains firm. But in the short term, these positive factors are not yet sufficient to trigger a full recovery. On one hand, the crypto market is still in a correction phase, with some easing of sentiment but still in “extreme panic”; on the other hand, year-end capital flows and holiday periods are causing institutions to unwind positions and adjust portfolios. Large capital withdrawals from risk assets like Bitcoin have significantly reduced market liquidity, putting continued downward pressure on prices.

Therefore, without major catalysts, liquidity in the crypto market is expected to remain relatively weak in January. As the market’s bellwether, Bitcoin’s short-term support levels are around $84,000 to $84,500. If these levels are broken, panic could spread further, and prices might drop toward November lows of $80,000.

10x Research’s weekly market report notes that implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has sharply declined toward the end of the year, indicating that the market expects their prices to stabilize rather than experience large swings. This suggests that months of selling pressure are gradually easing, and market sentiment is shifting from panic to caution, with institutional capital becoming more rational.

In summary, although current crypto prices are weak, it is clear that on-chain structures and institutional participation are steadily strengthening. In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to oscillate between $84,000 and $95,000, with fierce battles between bulls and bears. However, there is also potential for stabilization and capital inflows. Looking into early 2026, the market will focus more on ETF capital flows, DAT data, prediction markets, tokenized assets, and U.S. policy and regulation. If these positive factors successfully turn into key catalysts, market confidence could be greatly boosted, potentially sparking a new bull cycle driven by institutional investors.