XRP shows signs of a 2022 crash again? Three major historical patterns return, is breaking below $1 the focus?

January 20 News, XRP price has declined nearly 10% since last week. Amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures, market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space has become notably cautious. Multiple data points indicate that XRP’s current market structure closely resembles the phase before the significant correction in 2022, sparking widespread discussions among investors about whether XRP will break below $1.

On-chain data provides the first warning signals. Glassnode shows that short-term holders with a holding period of 1 week to 1 month are accumulating at prices below the cost basis of those holding for 6 to 12 months. This structure suggests that early high-position buyers are facing ongoing psychological and unrealized losses. Similar situations occurred in early 2022, followed by a marked downward adjustment in the market.

The second similarity comes from changes in trading volume. Recently, as XRP’s price has fallen, trading volume has not increased accordingly; instead, it has continued to decline. This phenomenon indicates a lack of effective support during the current decline, with cautious sentiment among buyers at lower prices. Historically, this combination of falling prices and shrinking volume often signals a lack of market confidence.

The third risk signal is reflected in technical indicators. Comparing the current cycle with the phases of 2021 to 2022, the momentum structure of the MACD histogram shows a high degree of consistency. If XRP breaks below the critical support zone of $1.8 to $1.9, the potential downside could further expand, and the psychological threshold of $1 will face testing.

However, the market is not solely one-sided. Some analyses suggest that XRP is at a key pattern decision point. If the price can regain the 100-day moving average and break through the $2.48 to $2.52 range, it could release over 30% of its upside potential.

In the short term, XRP’s price movement remains highly dependent on technical structures and overall market sentiment. For investors focusing on XRP price forecasts and whether XRP will break below $1, managing positions and reducing leverage remain important strategies during this high-volatility phase.