Lantern Festival coincides with a Blood Moon "once every 46 years"! Both the Taiwan stock market and the US stock market happen to be on the edge of a cliff—coincidence or fate?

Tonight is Taiwan’s Lantern Festival, and it’s also the day when the rare 46-year astronomical event “Blood Moon Total Lunar Eclipse” makes an appearance. The last time the Lantern Festival coincided with a blood moon was in 1990, and the next won’t be until 2072. An ancient folk saying goes, “Blood moon, demons appear,” which sounds absurd in modern times, but right now, the global financial markets are truly hanging on the edge of a cliff.
(Background: Iran war highlights “Is Bitcoin better than gold?” Local exchanges see a surge of 700%, using cryptocurrencies to escape)
(Additional context: Bloomberg reports: US-Iran war has limited impact on Bitcoin, trading range remains between $60,000 and $70,000; Hyperliquid contracts serve as a hedge indicator)

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• US stocks “Iran Shock” breaks below 100-day moving average, VIX soars 18%
• Taiwan stocks: Foreign investors sell aggressively, can the 35,000 point hold?
• Does the moon really influence the market?

From 19:04 to 20:03 tonight (March 3), a dark red full moon will hang in the Taiwan night sky for exactly 59 minutes. Although clouds may obscure the view in Taiwan, this is the only total lunar eclipse in 2026 and the first blood moon on Lantern Festival since 1990. Taipei Astronomical Museum reminds everyone that if you miss this, the next blood moon on Lantern Festival will be in 2072.

In Han Chinese tradition, a blood moon is never a good omen. The old saying “Blood moon, demons appear” has been passed down for thousands of years. Ancient people believed that a red moon signified cosmic imbalance, warning of war, famine, and dynastic change. Similar unease exists in the West; medieval Europeans saw blood moons as “omens of the end times,” and the “moon turning to blood” in the Book of Revelation remains a popular horror element in modern culture.

Of course, modern science knows that a blood moon is simply a natural phenomenon where sunlight passing through Earth’s atmosphere refracts red light onto the moon.

But when you compare that blood moon with your stock app, you might feel like the ancients were onto something.

US Stocks “Iran Shock” Breaks Below 100-Day Moving Average, VIX Surges 18%

Just two days before the blood moon (March 2), Wall Street experienced one of the most dramatic trading days of 2026.

Triggered by the “Iran Shock” effect from US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, the S&P 500 gapped down sharply, breaking below the 100-day moving average (around 6,830 points), now holding at a critical support level of 6,775. Some analysts say market sentiment has shifted from “buy the dip” to “sell the rip.”

The fear gauge VIX soared 18% in a single day, rumors of the Hormuz Strait being blocked sent oil prices soaring, and the term “stagflation”—the least welcome word for investors—re-emerged. All this is happening at a sensitive time when the Federal Reserve is preparing for a rate cut cycle.

According to Nasdaq data, since 1957, in 12 out of 17 U.S. midterm election years, the S&P 500 experienced at least a 10% correction, a 70% probability. 2026 is a midterm election year, and the Trump administration’s average tariff rate has surged from about 2% at the start of 2025 to 12%. JPMorgan estimates a 35% chance of recession in the U.S.

Taiwan Stocks: Foreign Selling Intensifies, Can the 35,000 Point Hold?

Back in Taiwan, the situation isn’t any easier.

The Taiwan Weighted Index closed today at around 34,423 points, a slight decline amid underlying turbulence. Foreign investors have sold a total of NT$599.5 billion so far in 2025, the third-highest on record, with TSMC bearing the brunt as a major withdrawal target.

Concerns over AI bubble fears persist. Although major foreign firms remain optimistic about AI in early reports, the stalemate of “rising but not falling” has lasted several weeks. The market is waiting for a direction, and tonight’s Iran developments could very well be the spark.

The core dilemma for Taiwan stocks is that AI capital expenditure is expected to grow another 50% in 2026, fueling bullish sentiment. But if the US stock market corrects by 20-30% first, Taiwan—being a key node in the global electronics supply chain—won’t be immune. The last tariff panic crash in August 2025 still lingers in memory.

Does the Moon Really Influence the Market?

If you think science ends where mysticism begins, the idea that “the moon influences stocks” has actually been studied seriously by academia.

Multiple papers published on ScienceDirect and ResearchGate have found that stock returns during full moons are slightly lower than during new moons. Researchers suggest this may relate to subtle effects of lunar phases on human emotions and risk appetite, rather than any mystical power. During a full moon, people tend to be more cautious and conservative, which manifests as increased selling pressure in trading behavior.

Some technical analysts even incorporate lunar eclipses into their trading strategies, believing “market reversals often start near lunar eclipses and end near solar eclipses.” While this theory has weak scientific backing, some investors believe in it.

Of course, the consensus in academia is that there is a weak statistical correlation between the moon and the market, but no causal relationship. The moon won’t cause stocks to fall, but human fear of uncertainty can lead to selling.