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Last night, because of the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, Iran said that it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Hormuz is also the lifeblood of the world's fourth-quarter crude oil and 30% liquefied natural gas. Tensions in the Middle East continued to drive up risk aversion, and investors sold risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, causing the currency market to fall generally. Bitcoin fell as low as $98,200, a drop of more than 6%, and Ethereum was even worse, falling by more than 13%. The market liquidity was already low over the weekend, and the U.S. stock market was closed, and the panic could only be concentrated in the crypto market, which led to an overshoot in Bitcoin. To put it bluntly, this sharp swing is essentially the fault of the lack of liquidity, and if it were a working day, the decline might not be so exaggerated. With the exception of the currency circle, other markets were stable, with S&P 500 futures opening down 1% before narrowing to 0.4%. Brent crude oil rose nearly 6% at one point, but the gains also gradually narrowed. Markets are now more concerned about Trump's tariffs, which resemble the tariff panic in February. If the situation in the Middle East eases, the market may rebound soon.
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From a data perspective, Bitcoin's support level is still very solid at 96000-98500. The 98000 line is not only a technical area of concentrated chips but also the average cost line for short-term holders. The upper pressure is quite heavy, likely concentrated at 103000-105200, where it will probably take more time to move up. Yesterday, it dropped to 98200 and held steady. As long as the situation in the Middle East does not spiral further out of control, the price can stabilize around 98000. Yesterday, MicroStrategy also released a Bitcoin tracker, indicating they are buying the dip again, and short-term buying pressure remains strong. Overall, this drop is mainly due to the negative impact of the Middle East conflict, as there are concerns that the conflict will escalate further, triggering risk-averse sentiment. The recent drop in the crypto market seems a bit unjust, as other markets have not fallen much, indicating that the crypto market is still too young and easily swayed by emotions. It is necessary to develop a complete trading strategy and ensure proper risk control!