7.25 Ethereum thoughts

From the current 4-hour trend of Ethereum, the price is oscillating closely along the middle track, with the channel width narrowing. Although the price is currently above the middle track, the middle track itself shows signs of flattening. If the price cannot effectively break upward, coupled with the narrowing channel, the probability of breaking down below the middle track will increase. The KDJ three lines are diverging upwards, indicating seemingly active short-term buying. However, the short-term bullish signal of the KDJ indicator is diverging from the bearish signal of the MACD midline, suggesting that the current bullish strength may be difficult to sustain. The MACD is dominated by bears: the DIF crosses below the DEA to form a death cross, indicating that the midline momentum is bearish. Although the current bearish momentum bars are decreasing, the formation of a death cross is a clear bearish signal. As long as the DIF continues to run below the DEA, the bears will dominate. Based on the current indicators and price trends, the risk of a downturn is high. If the price cannot quickly break through the previous high of 3753, with the KDJ indicator in overbought territory and the continuation of the MACD bearish signal, it is very likely to lose the middle track and further decline. Bearish strategy: Aggressive traders can short with a light position when the price stagnates at 3750, targeting 3580; conservative traders should wait for the price to break below 3660 before shorting, targeting 3580.
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