October, as a key observation period for policies, will see the intensive release of multiple economic events and institutional signals:

On October 9, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to deliver a speech, and it is essential to pay close attention to whether he mentions "economic slowdown" or "cooling labor market" more frequently, as well as whether he continues to emphasize the stance of "relying on data" and "decision-making at each meeting." If he signals a weaker economic outlook and shows a dovish tendency, the market may trade in anticipation of policy easing at the end of the month; conversely, if he maintains a vague or hawkish tone, market volatility may intensify before the interest rate decision.

The US September CPI data released on October 15 will become an important basis for predicting the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy at the end of the month.

On October 18, the United States will hold a roundtable on cryptocurrency affairs, focusing on financial regulation and privacy protection issues; on the 21st of the same month, the Federal Reserve will convene a payment innovation conference to discuss cutting-edge topics such as stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and asset tokenization. These two meetings carry significant policy implications—issues like stablecoins, AI, and tokenization are being addressed in parallel, reflecting the fact that crypto assets are gradually being integrated into the mainstream financial system, and also indicating that the Federal Reserve is accelerating the construction of a corresponding compliance framework.

On October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. In conjunction with the non-farm payroll data (released on October 3) and CPI data published earlier this month, the market will assess whether the policy can shift from "verbal easing" to "actual easing." Currently, the market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point rate cut this month has risen to 96%, suggesting that the liquidity environment is approaching a turning point.

October begins, everything is renewed, and the market hopes to see positive policy outcomes this month.
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