The current BTC bullish momentum has entered a deep exhaustion stage, with the rebound strength continuously constrained. After multiple attempts to break through key resistance, the price has failed to do so and instead continues to dip, refreshing recent lows. The trend characteristics dominated by bears are very evident.

From a short-term perspective, the hourly chart shows a clear "step-like decline" pattern: each small rebound near the short-term moving average is met with resistance, followed by a return to lower levels accompanied by shrinking trading volume, forming a series of descending highs and lows, with a stable trend structure and no reversal signals present. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands at the hourly level continue to widen, with prices consistently operating below the lower band, which has a steep downward slope, indicating that short-term bearish forces are still being released with no clear signs of a bottoming out.
Switching to the daily chart, the market is also in a weak pattern: the price has consecutively closed 4 solid bearish candles, and the body length of each bearish candle has gradually expanded, with almost no significant rebound correction during this period. The candlestick pattern has formed a "consecutive bearish breakout" trend, further reinforcing the bearish trend. The daily Bollinger Bands also show a downward opening state, with the price moving far from the middle band and continuously approaching the lower band. The moving average system, such as MA5/MA10/MA30, presents a bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages continuously suppressing the price, and the technical indicators are completely biased towards bearish.

Based on the comprehensive analysis of short and long cycle signals, the market is highly likely to continue its downward trend. Even if a rebound occurs, it will more likely be a "warm-up adjustment" after a technical overshoot, with the rebound space limited by short-term resistance levels (such as the hourly MA20 or the daily MA5). It is difficult to change the overall bearish structure, and one must not misjudge the short-term pullback as a trend reversal.

In terms of strategy, continue to firmly adhere to the previous "mainly high positions" strategy, with specific execution suggestions as follows:

• Entry Range: Prioritize placing short orders in the range of 106000-106800 USD

• Target Setting: The first target level looks down at 104000

#Gate9月透明报告出炉 #加密市场回调 #十月降息预测 #BTC⁩ #ETH⁩