ETH October 21 Market Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

· The bearish pattern remains: the price is below key moving averages such as EMA10, EMA20, and EMA72.
· Short-term support test: The current price is slightly above EMA5(3,936.38), testing this short-term support.
· Key Position: The price is oscillating in the range of 3,920-3,950, at a critical point for choosing a direction.
· Long-term support: EMA180(3,831.00) is still an important long-term support.

2. MACD Indicator Analysis - Important Trend Reversal Signals

· Golden cross initially formed: MACD turned positive (+0.43), DIF(+0.42) has crossed above DEA(-89.08)
· Momentum Shift: This is a positive signal indicating the exhaustion of short-term bearish momentum and the beginning of buying interest.
· Need to confirm: Although there is a MACD golden cross, the DEA is still a large negative value and further confirmation is needed.

3. Volume Analysis

· Extremely low trading volume: The current trading volume of 307 million indicates that market trading is extremely light.
· Pre-reversal signal: This extreme decrease in volume usually indicates an impending directional choice.
· Positive signal: Decreased volume during the decline indicates limited selling pressure.

4. Price Structure Analysis

· Resistance levels:
· Instant Resistance: 3,999.90 (EMA10)
· Strong resistance 1: 4,002.26 (24h high)
· Strong Resistance 2: 4,102.02 (EMA72)
· Support Levels:
· Key support: 3,936.38 (EMA5)
· Strong support 1: 3,920.91 (24-hour low)
· Strong support 2: 3,831.00 (EMA180)

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (50% probability): short-term rebound testing resistance

1. Reason: MACD Golden Cross + Price Stabilizes above EMA5 + Volume Decrease Consolidation
2. Retracement Target:
· First target: 3,999-4,002 range (EMA10 and 24-hour high)
· Second target: around 4,102 (EMA72)
3. Key Conditions: Need to confirm increased trading volume.

Possible scenario for the next time (30% probability): continued oscillation and consolidation.

1. Feature: Continue to shrink volume and oscillate in the range of 3,920-4,000.
2. Duration: It may last 1-3 trading days.
3. Subsequent Development: Choosing a Direction After the Fluctuation

Low probability scenario (20% probability): Break below support and continue downward.

1. Trigger condition: Break below the support of 3,920 with increased volume
2. Downward target: 3,831 (EMA180)
3. Low probability: the current technical indicators favor a rebound.

Trading Advice

For long holders:

· You can continue to hold, set the stop loss below 3,910
· If it rebounds to the range of 3,990-4,000, consider reducing positions.
· If it breaks 4,002 and increases in volume, you can hold and observe.

For short sellers/wait-and-see observers:

· You can try shorting lightly at 3,980-3,990, with a stop loss above 4,020.
· A better strategy is to wait for a pullback to the 3,830-3,850 support area to position long.
· Stop loss on short position when breaking 4,020 with increased volume

Risk Control Focus:

· Key Observations:
· Is the 3,936 support effective?
· Can the trading volume be increased
· 4,000 resistance breakout situation
· Long Stop Loss: Below 3,910
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 4,020

Risk Warning

1. Extremely low trading volume is a major risk, and a confirmation of direction requires increased volume.
2. The MACD golden cross needs confirmation; be cautious of false signals.
3. Overall market sentiment will influence ETH's independent trend.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position and strictly set stop-loss.

Summary: ETH is currently at a critical technical position, with the MACD showing a golden cross signal, and a technical rebound is expected in the short term. Cautious long positions can be taken, but it is essential to closely monitor the breakthrough of key resistance levels and changes in trading volume. If it breaks through the 4,000 mark with increased volume, it will further confirm the rebound trend.