All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.44%, the S&P 500 Index up by 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing by 2.69%. Large technology stocks collectively rose, according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 82.9% (up from 69.4% yesterday), while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 65.4%, with a 12.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 22% probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points. The crypto market rebounded across the board, with Bitcoin reaching a high of 89,100 and Ethereum peaking at 2,980. Other altcoins also saw an upward movement, especially as on-chain data monitoring showed that BlackRock's wallet added 2,269 BTC and 10,629 ETH in the past two hours. Change the original trading strategy and follow Yibo to grasp real-time dynamics in the crypto world! Don't miss the upcoming "Christmas" market.

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Bitcoin showed strong performance in the early session yesterday, reaching a peak of 88000 USD before entering a consolidation phase around the 85000 USD range. Although there was a noticeable upward push in the evening, after dipping to a low of 85227 USD, it quickly rebounded, reaching a new high of 89179 USD. However, it could not maintain this level and faced downward pressure, currently trading around 88000 USD, presenting an overall "high and then retreat" oscillation pattern. From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart clearly shows characteristics of high-level pressure and stagnation. After reaching the short-term high of 89179 USD, the market did not continue its upward momentum but instead entered a stage of oscillating convergence, with the body of the bullish candle significantly narrowing. This pattern directly reflects that the bullish momentum is gradually weakening, and the buying strength at high levels is insufficient. In the context where bulls are temporarily unable to break through the previous high, the bearish forces are gradually taking control, and the overall short-term market sentiment is bearish. Investors need to be highly vigilant about the risk of further market pullback, with a key focus on the defense of the 85000 USD critical support level. If this level is lost, it may trigger a more significant adjustment.

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Ethereum exhibited a "first suppressed, then lifted, and finally retreated" fluctuation trajectory yesterday. After testing the low point around 2761 in the morning, the market entered a rebound channel and gradually rose during the day session, peaking at around 2883 in the afternoon. Subsequently, it fell back due to pressure and consolidated, dipping to around 2782 before starting to rise again. In the early hours, it reached a high of around 2986 before retreating, maintaining a broad oscillation trend overall. The technical analysis shows that Ethereum's 4-hour chart has consistently fluctuated within the upper section of the Bollinger Bands. After a peak in the evening, it failed to break above, instead entering a contraction and consolidation phase. Combined with the characteristics of the hourly Bollinger Bands being in a narrowing state, it is expected that today will likely undergo horizontal correction below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. From the perspective of adjustment patterns, it is important to distinguish between strong consolidation and weak consolidation scenarios: strong consolidation mainly involves sideways fluctuations with strong support below, limiting the pullback space; weak consolidation, on the other hand, will be accompanied by significant space retracement, possibly testing the support range of 2780-2760 again. It is worth noting that the current moving average system has shown divergence signals, so short-term caution against "exploring highs and retreating" is advisable. Considering the large fluctuation base of Ethereum, even routine adjustments should not be underestimated.