Bitcoin's performance today (8:30 AM on December 1) is a bit awkward, with the long-short trend index dropping to 31, clearly weakening. The price is now hovering around $88,300, having fallen about 3.2% in the last 24 hours.

The plunge in the early session came very suddenly. The signs of heavy selling are quite obvious, and the short-term technical indicators have already dropped into the oversold zone. The key level now is at 89,500 - if the price cannot climb back up, the weakness is likely to continue; if it can make a strong rebound, then we will see if the range of 90,800 to 91,200 can hold.

**The short-term market looks a bit bleak**

On the 15-minute level, all moving averages are under pressure, with MA7 and MA25 accelerating their divergence, a typical bearish arrangement. The green bars of the MACD are sharply expanding, and the RSI has once dropped to around 12—this extreme oversold level indeed has a technical demand for a rebound. The surge in trading volume indicates that this is not a natural pullback, but rather a concentrated selling pressure.

The 1-hour chart is more intuitive: the price has fallen below all major moving averages, MA7 < MA25 < MA99, and the trend structure has completely turned bearish. The MACD dead cross is still widening, and the RSI has dropped to around 20, with bears holding an absolute advantage. However, after the oversold condition, there may be a weak rebound in the short term.

**The medium-term structure has also been broken**

On the 4-hour chart, the previous rebound structure has failed. MA7 and MA25 have bent down again, and after the bullish MACD bars shortened, they turned green, with momentum clearly turning bearish. The RSI has fallen to around 35; although it hasn't reached extreme values, the trend has already weakened. If it doesn't return above 89,800 in a short period, the rebound will be difficult to repair.

On the daily level, the price has fallen back below the MA7 again, and the signal for the end of the rebound is very clear. The MACD green bars are expanding again, and the RSI has slid to around 35, indicating that the daily trend has re-entered a downward phase. Overall, this represents a failure of a phase rebound within the downtrend.

**Still under observation for a long time**

The weekly level is relatively stable, with prices oscillating near the MA25, but the pressure continues to exist. The long-term MACD momentum is still trending down, and the RSI is around 38, indicating a weak structure. Although the long-term trend hasn't been completely broken, the synchronous weakening of the medium and short cycles is transmitting pressure to the long-term.

**The market is not very friendly either**

There are several points worth noting on the news front: US Treasury yields have risen to 4.9%, and the US dollar index is strengthening, which clearly suppresses risk assets in this macro environment. Yesterday, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $170 million, the largest single-day outflow in nearly four days. Additionally, there are reports in the market that some institutions are rebalancing their portfolios for the quarter, and the short-term selling pressure may be related to passive selling.

In summary, the current situation is that the short-term is oversold but the trend is weakening, and we need to observe whether a strong rebound can occur to repair the structure.