The global market has been a bit lively recently, with a few major events worth keeping an eye on.

Let's first talk about the situation in the United States. A couple of days ago, Trump stated that the choice for the Federal Reserve Chair "has been decided," and the market generally speculates it to be Hasset—this guy is known to be dovish. Furthermore, the government shutdown has resulted in the permanent loss of some economic data for October, and now everyone basically assumes that the FOMC meeting on December 17-18 will lower interest rates by another 25 basis points. The dollar has been trending weakly recently, and real interest rates are also declining, which is considered a positive signal for risk assets.

The Middle East is restless again. The Ramon Airport in Israel was attacked by Houthi armed drones, and the US and the UK subsequently launched airstrikes in response. More critically, a special envoy is scheduled to visit Moscow next week, reportedly to discuss a "Russia-Ukraine + Middle East" packaged solution. The geopolitical premium is currently fluctuating at high levels, and short-term movements in safe-haven assets like oil and gold will depend on these news developments.

OPEC+ has indeed given a reassuring signal—announcing that it will maintain the current production quota for the entire year of 2026, and eight member countries will continue to voluntarily cut production in the first quarter. This basically supports the bottom of the crude oil supply side, so don't expect a significant drop in oil prices in the short term.

Latin America is quite interesting as well. Mexico has implemented "Plan México" to deal with the 25% tariff threat from the United States, and Argentina and Brazil are also preparing retaliation lists. The regional supply chain will definitely be misaligned in the short term, and logistics costs are expected to rise.

In the Asia-Pacific region, South Korea has extended visa-free access for Chinese group tourists of three or more until June next year, which is a positive development for the tourism industry. However, China, Japan, and South Korea are coordinating a new round of export control lists for semiconductor materials, which may disrupt the chip supply chain and logistics again.

The following key dates to pay attention to: On December 6, the U.S. employment report will be released. If the unemployment rate reaches 4.3% or higher, expectations for interest rate cuts will be further strengthened, leading to a decline in the dollar and potential increases in gold and cryptocurrencies. The U.S. CPI data on December 10 is also very important; if the core CPI is below 3.2%, it indicates that inflation is not out of control, and the Fed's dovish stance will be more stable. The FOMC meeting on December 17-18, along with the dot plot, is of great concern to the market regarding whether the Fed will provide guidance for an additional 50 basis points rate cut in 2026.

In summary, the changes in the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape during this period are significant. Keeping a close eye on these data and events is crucial for assessing market trends.