#数字货币市场回升 The change of leadership at the Fed has already caused a stir in the market. With Powell stepping down and Hassett stepping up, many people's first reaction is – it's over, the crypto world is going to cool down. Really? I don’t think so.

First, the conclusion: if Hassert really acts according to his previous style, this could be a big positive for cryptocurrencies. Why? It all depends on how he manipulates the interest rate lever.

We need to understand a fundamental logic—assets like Bitcoin are essentially "shadows of liquidity." Where does money flow when there's more of it? The stock market, the housing market, the crypto world. What happens when there's less money? Everyone holds onto cash and government bonds to survive the winter. Therefore, whether the Fed injects liquidity directly determines whether there is incremental capital in the crypto world.

If Hasset really turns dovish and starts to cut interest rates or even restart quantitative easing, the scene will be too beautiful: cheap capital will flood out like a torrent, looking for high-yield targets. With traditional financial yields down, money will naturally overflow into the crypto market. Coupled with lower borrowing costs, on-chain DeFi activities and leveraged trading will heat up. In this environment, it is only a matter of time before $BTC breaks through its previous high, and the $ETH ecosystem will also take off.

But - there's always a but - what if inflation can't be controlled? No matter how much Hassett wants to inject liquidity, sitting in that position, he has to be accountable for the inflation data. If the CPI is still hovering at a high level, would he dare to cut interest rates significantly? No, he wouldn't. The credibility of the Fed relies on "actions speak louder than words"; once the market senses that he has softened, inflation expectations will immediately spiral out of control.

So the real risk here is: if he is forced to maintain high interest rates to completely kill inflation, then the days in the crypto world will not be easy. High interest rates = bloodletting, market liquidity continues to dry up, and funds continue to flow into "safe assets." In this case, let alone a bull market, it would be a blessing just not to continue falling.

There is another easily overlooked point - confidence. The words of the Fed chair are more important than the policies themselves. If he comes into office and reassures the market by saying, "We can handle inflation, the economy will have a soft landing," the market sentiment will stabilize immediately. A stable macro environment is more effective than any positive news. Conversely, if he makes ambiguous statements, the market will vote with its feet.

As for the regulatory attitude, although the Fed does not directly oversee cryptocurrencies, the chairman's stance will influence the overall policy direction. If he is friendly towards digital assets, there will at least be no obstacles at the policy level; if he is conservative, then institutions like the SEC and CFTC will tighten up accordingly.

In short, whether Hassett is bullish or bearish on the crypto world depends on three key factors: whether he dares to cut interest rates, whether inflation can be controlled, and whether the market trusts him. It is still too early to make a judgment, but one thing is certain - the shift in monetary policy is always the biggest variable in the crypto market.