#数字资产市场观察 Did someone predict this round of highs two years ago? It sounds mystical, but the data is there.

I came across this statement on an overseas forum at the end of last year. The poster's logic is very straightforward: statistically, the average Bitcoin bull market lasts 1064 days, while bear markets contract for about 364 days. Following this rhythm, the peak of this cycle is expected to occur around October 6, 2025.

What was the result? BTC really surged to $126,000 that day and then started to retrace.

Coincidence? Maybe. But when I looked back at the historical data, I found that the error of this cycle framework generally does not exceed a week. This is not a complex algorithm, just a simple count of days, but the accuracy is high enough to be a bit unsettling.

To be honest, I also thought it was nonsense when I first calculated this result. After all, Bitcoin's market capitalization is already in the trillions; how could it be like a clockwork mechanism? However, the halving mechanism is indeed continuously shaping the supply and demand rhythm of the market. This periodicity may not be artificially manipulated, but rather the result of rules embedded in the code.

Just like farmers need to pay attention to the seasons when farming, traders may also need to learn to observe the "coin calendar."

After the peak on October 6th, I repeatedly reminded everyone in the circle: the cycle has reached its point, it's time to withdraw. Sure enough, a sharp drop came a few days later, catching many people off guard. But if you understand this set of rules, your mindset will be much steadier—bear markets are just a necessary phase of the cycle, and after the darkness, there will always be light.

Someone asked what to do next. My answer is very simple: wait.

When the next bull market starts in 1064 days, after enduring 364 days of bear market consolidation, the starting point of the next cycle will naturally emerge. This is not metaphysics, but mathematics; there's no need to be superstitious, but it can be referenced. The larger the market size, the clearer the cycle tends to be.

There are just two core numbers:
Bull Market ≈ 1064 days
Bear market ≈ 364 days

You don't have to watch the market every day; learning to look at the calendar might help you outperform most people. Of course, this is just my personal observation and does not constitute any investment advice. The market always has surprises, but cycles have never been absent.

$ETH