Can the top and bottom of the crypto market be captured? To be honest, precise predictions are basically impossible. But finding a "relatively safe zone"? Absolutely possible. Here are 4 practical dimensions to help you avoid pitfalls.

First, let's talk about the emotional aspect - this thing is the most direct.
When you find that WeChat groups are crazily sharing profit screenshots, even the aunt selling vegetables downstairs is asking how to buy coins, and the proportion of long positions in contracts is directly off the charts, then it basically indicates a stage high. Conversely? When the screen is filled with cries to exit the market, and retail investors are cutting losses in droves, with liquidation data appearing in clusters, this extreme panic often represents a relative low point.

Technical indicators should be viewed in conjunction.
No need to make it too complicated, three is enough: RSI above 70 is considered overbought, dropping below 30 enters the oversold zone; prices hitting the upper Bollinger Band or breaking through the lower band are extreme signals; a sudden spike in trading volume may indicate the last buying opportunity, while a drop to low volume suggests selling pressure is about to exhaust. Combining these data is much more reliable than just looking at the K-line.

The historical price position is also very critical.
Is it oscillating repeatedly near the previous high point without breaking through? It is likely encountering resistance. Has it started to stabilize and rebound after dropping to historical lows? Support is in effect. Additionally, when the price is too far from the 60-day or 120-day moving average, whether there is a surge or a drop, it is prone to returning to make corrections.

Finally, let's look at the capital flow - what is the smart money doing?
On-chain data can speak: large amounts of funds are transferred into cold wallets, which may indicate that the main players are accumulating; conversely, substantial transfers into exchanges are likely preparing for selling. These actions are more accurate than the calls from retail investors.

Remember this: there is no 100% judgment method. In practice, do not go all in chasing highs or bottom fishing. Using half a position + strict stop-loss, and entering and exiting in batches is the way to last in the long run. Replace gambling instincts with rules; this is the core of surviving in the crypto market.