Unfavourable Information in the crypto world: Trump is going to launch ground operations against Venezuela?

On Saturday, Trump suddenly ordered a complete lockdown of Venezuela's airspace, and today he spoke with Maduro for negotiations; however, the talks quickly fell apart —
Maduro demands: 1. Continue to control the military; 2. Seek global criminal immunity for himself and his group.
Trump immediately rejected, and the situation became tense again.
The United States has currently completed a large-scale military buildup in the Caribbean: aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, destroyers, and submarines form a maritime strike system; in the air, there are B-52 strategic bombers and F-35 stealth fighters; the total military strength is about 15,000, supported by the "Ford" aircraft carrier.
This is the largest military display by the United States in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989, equipped with precision elimination and special operations capabilities.
Venezuela has immediately mobilized the entire country, with land, sea, air, missile forces, and a million militia in comprehensive military exercises. The Defense Minister stated that the "war machine of the United States has been activated," urging the nation to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
But in my opinion, the likelihood of the U.S. actually launching a ground invasion remains very low:
First, the troop strength is far from sufficient.
A full-scale invasion would require at least 50,000 ground troops, while the U.S. military currently has only 15,000, which does not even meet the minimum threshold.
Secondly, Venezuela has strong defense capabilities.
150,000 regular troops, a million militias, plus the tropical rainforest and mountainous defense lines, the US military is likely to fall into a prolonged guerrilla warfare quagmire, which does not align with American strategic and cost considerations.
Third, anti-war sentiment is rising in the United States.
Seventy percent of the American public opposes military intervention, Trump’s poll numbers are at a low point, and rashly starting a war will seriously impact next year's midterm elections.
Based on the above factors, I think it is more likely that it is Trump's usual "deterrence show" script:
Military display → pressure → negotiation → further pressure → final announcement of "victory." Through maritime and air blockades, sanctions, and intelligence infiltration, the United States has been able to exert influence over Venezuela's 300 billion barrels of oil reserves without having to bear the risks of ground warfare.
However, the short-term risk aversion sentiment in the capital market may continue to disturb the market, and contracts still need to remain cautious.
Continue to pay attention to Powell's speech at 9 am tomorrow! #十二月行情展望 #十二月降息预测