This morning when I woke up and saw BTC break through 86000, to be honest, my heart skipped a beat.

It's not because of the drop itself—I've seen this kind of volatility many times. What really makes my scalp tingle is the number hidden beneath the surface: 76%.

The market is now betting that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has surged to 76%, and is approaching 90% in January. You might think, how does it matter to my crypto market whether an island nation’s central bank raises interest rates or not?

The relationship has become significant.

In the past few decades, the yen interest rate has been almost zero. Global institutions have been borrowing yen like crazy, exchanging it for dollars, and pouring into the US stock market and Bitcoin. This strategy is called "carry trade," and how big is it? 14 trillion dollars. That's right, 14 trillion.

Japan is tightening its monetary policy now, what does this mean? The money lent out has to be paid back, and dollar assets need to be sold off. And BTC, being a highly volatile asset, is always the first to be hit.

Just look at the recent data to know how serious the situation is: BTC dropped over 20% in a single month, with a net outflow of 3.5 billion USD in ETFs, and 400 million in long positions went to zero overnight. The market is now as fragile as glass, shattering with just a light touch.

More bizarre is the situation with the Federal Reserve. Powell avoided discussing policy details during his speech tonight, and this silence makes people even more uneasy—often after a quiet period comes a storm. If Japan tightens liquidity and the U.S. refuses to provide relief, BTC will face a situation of being squeezed from both sides.

Speaking of tragedy, BNB's recent performance is quite distressing. The newly appointed BSC Growth Director, Lina, is making a strong push, but the problem is that the retail investors are almost all gone; what do you have left for growth? A bunch of projects on-chain have already dropped below their early buying prices, and once-glorious projects are now in worse shape than ever. That said, the most anxious ones are not the retail investors, but the operators. Market rescue actions might already be in the works.

Back to the point. Carry trade closing is indeed terrifying, but it is not the end of the world. After the last interest rate hike in Japan in 2024, BTC reached a new high within three months. History does not simply repeat itself, but it always follows a rhythm.

Next, keep an eye on two key dates: the Bank of Japan meeting in mid-December and the update of the Federal Reserve's dot plot. Don't rush in; controlling your position is more important than anything else. The market will come back, but the premise is that you have to survive to see that day.

So at this position now, are you choosing to wait and see, or are you ready to enter the market in batches?