CME data: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly ninety percent, and there is a divergence in the policy path for January next year.

According to the latest data from CME, the market's bets on the Fed's policy direction in December have become quite clear.

This month, a 25 basis point rate cut? The probability is as high as 87.6%, basically a done deal. The likelihood of maintaining the status quo is only 12.4%, which can almost be ignored.

Extending the timeline to January next year complicates things: the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 69.3%, the probability of holding steady decreases to 9.3%, while the possibility of an aggressive cut of 50 basis points is also 21.3%.

This set of data reflects the market's divergent expectations regarding the Fed's policy path—gradual easing seems to be the mainstream consensus, but the possibility of accelerated easing cannot be ruled out.