#ETH巨鲸增持 Did the market's big dump blame the regulatory shout? Brother, you're going in the wrong direction — the real fuse this time is in Tokyo.

BTC slid from over 90,000 dollars to 85,000, and many people's first reaction is to focus on various conference news. But to be honest, those statements are like a lot of thunder but little rain; what really drained the funds is that the yield on Japan's ten-year government bonds quietly broke through 1.1%. It is worth noting that this number last appeared during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.

Why can Japan's affairs stir the world? To put it simply, for the past decade or so, the Bank of Japan has been playing the role of "the world's cheapest funding supplier." Under the zero interest rate policy, institutions have been borrowing yen like crazy, swapping it for dollars to buy U.S. Treasuries and tech stocks, while also adding some crypto assets—after all, the cost is close to zero, so any profit is a surprise, and any loss isn't too painful. This way of playing has a professional term: yen arbitrage trading. The cryptocurrency market? It's just a small station on this funding chain.

But now the situation has changed. Domestic inflation in Japan cannot be suppressed, and the expectation of interest rate hikes by the central bank is becoming stronger. Borrowing money now requires paying "rent".

This logic actually involves three steps:

First, the rising borrowing costs directly compress the arbitrage space;
Secondly, the appreciation of the yen means that the "cheap money" borrowed initially now requires more dollars to repay;
Thirdly, institutions began to sell off their assets on a large scale to cut losses—US stocks, bonds, gold, cryptocurrencies, anything that could be liquidated was being offloaded.

Why is BTC falling the hardest? Because it has strong liquidity, 24-hour trading, and no limit on price fluctuations, it naturally becomes the first choice for capital withdrawal. This is not a technical collapse, but a tightening of the capital chain.

So stop fixating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations — a rate cut at most just puts a band-aid on the market; Japan's rate hike is the real blood vessel being pulled out! Even worse, if the Fed cuts rates while Japan raises rates, it will be like being squeezed from both ends, leaving funds in a dilemma.

Under the chain reaction, there are two critical time points in December that must be closely monitored:
✅ December 10: Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, whether to lower, and by how much
✅ December 19: Bank of Japan policy meeting, whether to raise interest rates and how strong the attitude is

In the short term, under this macro game, both bottom-fishing and chasing highs feel like walking a tightrope on the edge of a knife. The market should actually be on the sidelines 90% of the time, rather than impulsively placing orders. If you really want to operate, at least you need to clearly understand the actions of these two central banks before proceeding.