#ETH巨鲸增持 $BTC $ETH $SUI

There's a key data release tonight at 9:15 PM—the ADP employment report is coming, and it could directly impact whether the Fed will cut rates in December. Right now, market expectations are all over the place: FactSet is projecting an increase of 40,000 jobs, while Bloomberg's forecast is only 5,000. If the actual number comes in high, the hawks will immediately gain confidence, and the rate cut might be off the table.

The tricky part is that the government shutdown has pushed the official BLS employment report to December 16, so the ADP report is the only reference point for now. Although its predictive accuracy has been lacking lately, in this information vacuum, the market will still use it to make judgments.

The labor market is actually quite contradictory. ADP's weekly stats show an average of 13,500 layoffs per week over the past four weeks. The Fed's Beige Book also mentions "slight declines" in employment, with half of the regions showing weakening demand. But on the other hand, initial jobless claims have dropped to 216,000, the employment index in consumer confidence has stabilized, and small business hiring has picked up a bit—so there are mixed signals.

There's also disagreement within the Fed. Powell previously said a rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," but lately, Williams, Waller, and Daly have all started to soften their tone. The doves are eager to cut rates, while the hawks are fixated on inflation. According to CME data, market bets on a December rate cut have surged to 87%, up from just 37% before.

But if tonight's ADP number blows past expectations, the situation could turn around at any moment. Will the Fed hold steady or actually cut rates? The answer all depends on this one number tonight.