Bitcoin's Historic Undervaluation: A 194% Upside Potential According to Bitwise

Source: CoinTribune Original Title: BTC Lags Behind Global Money Growth Original Link: https://www.cointribune.com/en/btc-lags-behind-global-money-growth/ According to a recent Bitwise macroeconomic report, Bitcoin faces a historic undervaluation compared to the global monetary environment. The report reveals a significant 66% valuation gap between BTC and global monetary growth, implying a fair value close to $270,000 based on a cointegration model between Bitcoin and the global monetary aggregate M2, currently estimated at $137 trillion.

This gap represents one of the largest discrepancies ever observed between the price of Bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals. The report highlights several cyclical signals that strengthen the thesis of an undervalued BTC:

• 66% undervaluation of BTC relative to global money supply growth
• Estimated fair value: $270,000, against a current market price well below $100,000
• Expanding global liquidity: more than 320 rate cuts worldwide in two years
• The end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program on December 1st
• A $110 billion stimulus in Japan, resumption of quantitative easing in Canada, and a $1.4 trillion budget plan in China

According to Bitwise, the absence of a Bitcoin market reaction to these macroeconomic factors reflects a rarely seen asymmetric opportunity. If Bitcoin realigns with the implicit levels derived from money supply, this represents an upside potential of +194%.

From a complementary perspective, some analysts note that gold has absorbed most of the flows related to monetary dilution concerns this year, to the detriment of Bitcoin. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, notes that the current Bitcoin trend configuration is lagging behind gold in both momentum and Sharpe ratio. However, Timmer suggests this divergence could reverse through a mean reversion configuration.

Despite Bitcoin’s relative underperformance, Timmer believes Bitcoin remains broadly aligned with its long-term adoption curve based on a power law, while noting that returns become less explosive as the asset matures. He compares Bitcoin to an early younger brother of gold in a maturity phase—an asset that retains its fundamentals but whose market cycles are more complex and less impulsive.

Between perceived undervaluation and persistent uncertainty, Bitcoin remains at a crossroads. 2026 could mark a turning point if the market finally reacts to current macroeconomic fundamentals.