I recently saw some news: the US has made a move on AI chip exports—but the way they’re doing it is pretty strange.

Simply put, Nvidia and AMD can now sell high-performance chips to China, but there’s a catch: for every chip sold, they have to pay a 25% “protection fee” to the US government. You might think this is just a tech industry issue, but it actually has a big impact on mining and the computing power market.

Let’s talk about the two sides of this. The good news is that the global computing power supply chain might get a breather. AI training and crypto mining both compete for the same batch of high-performance computing hardware. Previously, a bunch of AI companies in the US were demanding priority for domestic supply, but now that this door is open—even though the top-tier chips still aren’t allowed—chips like the H200, which are still powerful, can be sold. This gives miners a potential new source, which isn’t a bad thing.

But the downside is obvious: costs will definitely go up. This 25% “tax” will ultimately be passed on to buyers—whether you’re an AI company or a mining farm owner, you’ll have to pay more for mining machines. What’s more troublesome is the policy risk—this is clearly a product of interest trade-offs, and there’s no guarantee the policy won’t change direction at any time.

So, what should retail investors think about this? My advice is don’t rush to chase the hype. As soon as the news breaks, those AI- and compute-linked altcoins might see a quick emotional surge, but these short-term rallies are often traps. If you really want to make a move, it’s better to keep an eye on price fluctuations in the mining machine market. If chip supply really increases, the cost and lead time for new mining machines may change.

At the end of the day, Bitcoin’s core logic has never relied on policy windfalls—its value lies in decentralization and censorship resistance. The more complex the geopolitical games, the more decentralized the global computing power distribution becomes, which is actually good for network security in the long run. So don’t be led by short-term news, be patient, wait for opportunities, and strike when the time is right.