2025-12-09 23:04:46

Looking through Bitcoin’s historical data, I found a pretty interesting pattern.

In past bull markets, the timelines were strikingly similar:
• In 2013, the rally lasted exactly 9 months from start to peak, with a “fakeout”—a bear trap—appearing in the 5th month.
• In 2017, history repeated itself: another 9-month cycle, but the bear trap came a bit earlier, in the 6th month.
• 2021? That’s right, 9 months again, with another shakeout in the 6th month.

Now it’s 2025, and we’re exactly at that sixth-month juncture.

If we follow this rhythm, and if history really does rhyme, could the next three months be Bitcoin’s craziest surge phase yet? Of course, past patterns don’t guarantee the future will repeat itself, but this cyclical behavior is definitely worth keeping an eye on. Do you think things will play out according to the script this time?

BTC-0.23%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MintMaster

· 12-11 21:16

The saying "historical rhyme" sounds nice, but the tricks in the crypto world are designed to make you crash within the pattern. Will this year still follow the script? Who dares to guarantee it?

View OriginalReply0

SchroedingerGas

· 12-11 18:00

Oops, wait, this time it feels a bit different.

View OriginalReply0

SchrodingerWallet

· 12-10 04:08

Ha, this wave of cyclical theory is here again, and every time someone can "find the law" from history But three matches in 9 months... It's really interesting, I'm afraid that this time it's the survivor bias at work Now the key is, how strong can the sixth month be in the wash, and whether the bottom is held?

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-e51e87c7

· 12-09 23:34

Uh, here comes the cycle theory again. Every time they say it's going according to the script, but it always backfires. Bro, your analysis does make some sense, but I still think there might be too many variables this time. No way, the market has already evolved. After institutions came in, how could they still follow the old retail investor patterns?

View OriginalReply0

LiquidationTherapist

· 12-09 23:30

Here we go with the historical cycle theory again... But this time it's really different, the macro environment has completely changed.

View OriginalReply0

PumpDetector

· 12-09 23:30

ngl the 9-month cycle thing is kinda sus... seen this pattern recognition cope too many times before the rug pull hits different 💀

Reply0

StableBoi

· 12-09 23:28

Bro, this theory sounds smooth, but if you really believe it, you're done for. The market isn't that obedient. --- The data looks good, sure, but there are too many variables in the spot market—nothing's certain. --- 9-month cycle? Wake up, does the macro environment now look anything like it did in 2013? --- Here we go again with the "history repeats itself" topic. Every time someone says this, they get proven wrong. Maybe doing the opposite is how you actually make money. --- Getting nervous by the 6th month? How weak is your mental fortitude? --- Betting on patterns is less reliable than betting on your own risk management skills.

View OriginalReply0

ChainBrain

· 12-09 23:28

This cycle theory is back again, but will history really follow the script? I don’t dare to bet on it. I’d rather keep more cash on hand. Hmm, looks like it’s time to get ready to catch the top... With such a strong rhythm, I’m actually getting nervous. The more regular things seem, the easier they are to crash. The six-month mark is indeed intense, but there are too many variables this time, so who knows. It’s the same old pattern theory again... let’s just watch the show, no need to believe it too much. Three months of crazy pumping? Well, that depends on the market makers’ mood. The data looks good, but the market might not buy it. The idea that history rhymes is a joke. If things really played out like that, retail investors would have stopped making money a long time ago. This pattern is too perfect, which actually makes me feel something’s off.

View OriginalReply0

FarmToRiches