#市场触底了吗？ Bitcoin stands at a critical crossroads: Is $81,500 support or a trap?

The average cost basis for Bitcoin investors is at $81,500. A breakdown could trigger selling pressure and lead to further declines.

Recently, Bitcoin's price has been oscillating within a narrow range of $81,000 to $89,000. This figure is not only a technical support level but also a subtle psychological equilibrium point for investors.

The $5.6 billion open interest expiring on December 26th acts like a magnet, temporarily "locking" Bitcoin's price within the current range.

As Bitcoin's price approaches the key psychological level of $81,500, every minor market fluctuation tugs at investors' nerves. This number is not only the average purchase cost from six months ago but also a psychological defensive line.

If breached, it could trigger a chain reaction; if held, it lays the groundwork for the next rally.

01 Key Psychological Level and Market Status

Bitcoin is currently in an extremely delicate price zone. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin is trapped within a fragile range of $81,000 to $89,000.

This range is critical because it revolves around a core figure—$81,500. This level is widely regarded as the average purchase price for investors, forming a strong psychological support.

Market attention to $81,500 is not unfounded. On-chain data shows that after falling below the short-term holder cost basis (around $104,600), Bitcoin entered a liquidity-scarce zone.

The current price is testing a key structural zone defined by the "Active Realized Capital Price" and the "Realized Market Value," which is centered around $81,000.

02 Market Sentiment and On-Chain Indicators

Market sentiment has hit rock bottom. The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 11/100, clearly indicating the market is in "Extreme Fear." Such extreme sentiment often coincides with local bottoms, though the timing of a rebound remains unpredictable.

On-chain data paints an even grimmer picture. Short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio has plummeted to 0.07, indicating the market is dominated by losses, and liquidity is rapidly drying up.

This overwhelming loss dominance suggests recent entrants are selling at all costs, while buyers are passively accumulating at lower levels.

The AVIV ratio (Active Market Valuation to Realized Valuation) is particularly noteworthy. This indicator excludes long-dormant or lost Bitcoin and the costs paid to miners, providing a closer approximation of the market's "fair value" and reflecting the scale of unrealized gains/losses among holders.

Currently, the AVIV ratio shows the market is cooling but has not yet peaked, indicating the Bitcoin bull cycle may still be ongoing.

03 Macro Environment and Liquidity Pressure

Global macroeconomic factors exert direct pressure on Bitcoin's price. The market is waiting anxiously for potential actions by the Bank of Japan, with concerns that the BOJ might hike interest rates later this week, reversing capital flows driven by yen interest rate differentials.

This concern is not unfounded. Historical data shows that whenever the BOJ tightens liquidity, Bitcoin often declines by 20-30%.

Meanwhile, trading volume has decreased by 20%. In this environment of thin liquidity, even moderate sell-offs can trigger sharp price swings.

The futures market shows an orderly deleveraging process, with open interest steadily decreasing and the funding rates for perpetual contracts remaining near neutral. This deleveraging is orderly, with little sign of forced liquidations, indicating derivatives traders are taking controlled, risk-reducing positions.

04 Institutional Behavior and Long-Term Narrative

Despite short-term market weakness, the long-term narrative remains intact. Policy-making and global capital flows have overtaken code updates and hash rate changes as the dominant variables influencing Bitcoin.

Institutional attitudes are shifting positively. The US Financial Stability Oversight Council's 2025 report has removed digital assets from its list of systemic vulnerabilities, ending a three-year warning period.

This change reflects increased institutional participation rather than concerns about contagion risk.

Even during market downturns, large investors continue accumulating Bitcoin. Strategy Inc., founded by billionaire Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin for the second consecutive week.

This contrarian buying indicates that major investors remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term value.

05 Overall Assessment and Future Outlook

The current Bitcoin market is at a critical crossroads. Bulls and bears are fiercely contesting the psychological level of $81,500, with market sentiment in extreme fear but not yet fully collapsed.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin needs to hold the key support at $81,000, which aligns with the real market average, the cost basis of US spot ETFs, and the 2024 average acquisition price. If this level is successfully defended, the market could continue to oscillate within the $81,000-$89,000 range, building strength for the next rally.

However, a breakdown of this critical zone could see Bitcoin testing the next important support at $80,000.

Options market positioning also offers important clues. The upcoming expiry on December 26th could be a pivotal market turning point. Market makers are gamma short on put options and gamma long on call options, suggesting that upside potential in the coming weeks may be limited, while downside risks remain unhedged.

The market's balance is delicately shifting. The $5.6 billion open interest expiring on December 26th acts like a magnet, temporarily "locking" Bitcoin's price within the current range.

Once this date passes, the market will shake off constraints, and liquidity will be redistributed.