December 18 Cryptocurrency Market Watch: The Night Before Japan's Rate Hike, ETH and BTC Battles and Opportunities

The current crypto market is experiencing intense volatility, with Ethereum (ETH) prices under pressure near $2,830, showing weak consolidation on the technical front. The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates tomorrow (December 19), which could trigger liquidity tightening in global risk assets, exerting significant downward pressure on BTC and ETH. In the short term, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, but historical data shows that after each rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the market often finds new opportunities after deep corrections.
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ETH/USDT 24-hour Key Data
🔥 Last Price: 2,830.32 USDT
📉 24h Change: -4.14%
📊 24h High: 3,029.24 | Low: 2,788.60
💸 24h Trading Volume: 8.486 billion USDT
📌 Technical Observation: Price has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, MACD indicator has formed a death cross below the zero line, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
Market Macro: The "Damocles Sword" of Japan's Rate Hike Expectations
Expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates on December 19 have risen to over 90%, and this "Damocles Sword" is hanging over all risk assets. As the last major central bank maintaining ultra-loose policies globally, a policy shift by the Bank of Japan will directly impact the 20 trillion USD yen carry trade. When investors break the arbitrage logic of borrowing low-cost yen to invest in high-risk assets like Bitcoin, it will trigger a global liquidity withdrawal, putting pressure on risk asset prices. Historical data shows that since 2024, every rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been accompanied by Bitcoin prices falling more than 20%, and market concerns are that this historical pattern may repeat tomorrow.
📅 Bank of Japan Rate Hike Expectation
📈 Expected Rate Increase: 25 basis points to 0.75%
💰 Market Pricing: Probability of rate hike > 90%
⚠️ Potential Impact: Triggering global carry trade liquidations, liquidity tightening
📉 Historical Impact Review
📅 March 2024: BTC -23%
📅 July 2024: BTC -26%
📅 January 2025: BTC -31%
📊 Analyst Warning: If this rate hike occurs, BTC may retrace to $70,000.
Bitcoin (BTC): Life and Death Battle at Key Support Levels
As the market's "barometer," Bitcoin's trend directly reflects macro sentiment strength. Currently, the market is closely watching its performance at the critical support level of $86,000. If this level is broken, it could trigger a deeper correction, with some analysts warning that prices may drop to $70,000. However, market opinions are highly divided. Pessimists believe a bear market has begun, while optimists think the current price has reached a short-term target and have turned bullish, setting a long-term target of $112,000. In the short term, the market generally expects prices to fluctuate between $87,000 and $93,000, waiting for a clear breakout signal.
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BTC/USDT Key Levels and Strategies
📍 Key Support Levels: 86,000 | 84,000 | 70,000
📍 Key Resistance Levels: 90,600 | 91,360 | 93,470
📊 Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear ( Index 16 )
💡 Trading Strategy: Consider staggered entries near key support levels, but strictly set stop-losses and remain cautious of macro risks.
Ethereum (ETH): Seeking Long-term Value in Weak Consolidation
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's trend is more weak, but its core value as a smart contract platform remains unchanged. Currently, ETH prices are oscillating around the $3,000 mark, attempting to form a bottom near $3,050, with key resistance at the 50-day moving average (around $3,281). Despite macro pressures, on-chain data shows that large whales are significantly increasing their long positions, possibly indicating long-term investors are accumulating on dips. Ethereum's valuation anchor is being reconstructed, and the ongoing expansion of its ecosystem applications and continuous inflow of institutional funds support its long-term value.
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ETH/USDT Technical and Ecosystem Value
📈 Technical Pattern: Attempting to bottom at $3,050, with a breakout above $3,281 targeting $3,500
💡 On-chain Signal: Large whales significantly increasing long positions
🌐 Ecosystem Value: Supporting core applications like DeFi, NFTs, with $4 billion in funds flowing into ETH ETFs
📌 Long-term Perspective: The $3,000 level is more about valuation bottoming than a growth bottleneck, representing a potential accumulation opportunity.
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